World currencies are falling under pressure from the dollar, but the ruble is stable
On 9 February the international rating Agency Moody’s upgraded Russia’s sovereign rating from the speculative Ba1 to the bottom rung of investment grade – Baa3. Moody’s analysts recognized that the probability of new sanctions by the US in the coming months is high, but measures taken by the Russian authorities in recent years is likely to help protect the economy and the country’s finances. We do not entirely agree with the thesis of the high probability of further sanctions in the near future, as if the United States again the government shutdown (“hour x” – February 15), then, as experience shows, the American legislators hardly will be able productively to vote on foreign agenda.
However, what would be worth mentioning in this analysis is on the internal position of Russia (which, however, traditionally minimally affects the external sovereign ratings) is a dynamic increase in accounts payable of Russians in the last year and a half. If in 2017 the growth of debt to banks was 13.2%, in 2018-m — 22,8% (total debt is almost 15 trillion rubles).
Today, in the absence of a productive agenda in terms of macroeconomic drew the attention of a big block of information in the UK, including GDP, which, however, is unlikely to have any particular effect on the markets outside of the United Kingdom and the Euro area – General attention was attracted by the announcement of the parameters of the so-called “may decrees” of the President.
The cost of implementing the projects within them will amount to 25.7 trillion rubles for the next 6 years. The document refers to 13 projects, 12 of which will focus on strategic areas: demography, health, education, science, culture, housing and urban environment, ecology, infrastructure, employment and labour protection. Special attention in the document was awarded the digital economy, small and medium business, as well as international cooperation and export.
Meanwhile, on the global Forex markets, the dollar has risen again. As of 12:00 GMT the dollar Index DXY soared to a level 96,56 – a maximum since December of last year, for no particular reason. It traditionally has a significant pressure on all asset classes – primarily raw materials and high-yielding currencies, which belongs to the Russian ruble.
Against this background, the Russian ruble still looks better than their “fellow division” (the reason has already been indicated in the above, in improving the credit rating and the inflow of non-residents on the stock market is in fact very strong numbers in the annual reports of the Russian exporters, in particular, reporting and Rosneft NLMK and expected in the same vein reporting gold mining Corporation – investors are entitled to higher dividends this year).
As of 12:15 Moscow time, the ruble weakened slightly with the opening to the level of 65.67 per dollar compared to the opening value 65.60 rubles to the dollar but continued to trade firmly inside its medium-term trade corridor outlined by the values 65 and 66 rubles per dollar. Most likely, until Wednesday, when is the next placement of OFZ, which in recent years have a significant impact on the ruble, but this picture will remain.
“International Financial Center”