Will the dollar to 60 rubles?

  • And
  • +A

The foreign exchange market Russia was rocked in recent weeks and it is likely that the current quiet on the set – it’s just a pause. It is obvious that the speculators are waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Federal reserve meeting. A large part of the market expects an interest rate increase to 2.25%. After the meeting the market to revive, as it will receive information upon which to make decisions on further investments. In fact, this is the only factor that may pull down the ruble.
Since the beginning of September, the ruble strengthened against the U.S. dollar by 3% (quoted in 26.09.2018 65,77 rubles per dollar) since the beginning of the year, the ruble became cheaper against us dollar by 15%. Observed in the last three weeks of the fluctuations is the response of the Russian currency on the background. In other words, the market situation is favorable.
On the one hand, the ruble has excellent support for very expensive oil. OPEC+ not to hurry with the increase in daily production quotas, as fears of overproduction. Technically the wave of this euphoria, the oil can reach up to $85/90 per barrel of Brent, but it all depends on news trends.
On the other hand, the absence of Express risk in terms of geopolitics. But this is a temporary coincidence, due to the lack of news on that front. Anyway, the U.S. Congress in the next two months still to make a decision on the bill and impose sanctions in one form or another. But while this factor has ceased to put pressure on the ruble.
In addition, the Bank of Russia together with the Ministry of Finance removed clearly annoying ruble factor – the placement of new OFZ bonds (government debt at auction), it was removed from the market a portion of the voltage and allowed it to develop courses based on the situation. This decision is of great importance for the domestic currency, as coupled with the panic because of the announcement of the new sanctions, actions of the office was strengthened by the fall of the ruble.
And on the side play of the ruble inflation rates. Because in this and next year inflation will grow at a rapid pace, this has forced the Central Bank to revise its forecasts (by 1 percentage point, to 5.0-5.5%) on this indicator, and to significantly tighten monetary policy. The Bank of Russia raised the rate (by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5% per annum) and, if necessary, will continue to do this and more. Most likely, tough rhetoric will continue until the end of the year and will encourage the strengthening of the ruble.
The main question now is how long will the stronger ruble. Will the 60 dollar RUB? The likelihood is present, but it is not very large, since Russia is under EU sanctions and the United States, and there are chances that in October the U.S. Congress will adopt additional measures to tighten sanctions. In addition, the fourth quarter is usually fraught for Russia with large payments on external public and corporate debt, this puts pressure on the ruble due to the demand for foreign currency on the part of large buyers.
According to estimates Alpari, in the next few months the dollar will fluctuate within the range of 63-70 marks, the Euro – in the range of 76 to 80 RUB.
Whether to buy now the currency for personal needs? In the current environment, taking into account the talks about the possibility of restrictions on the circulation of the dollar (the chances are small, but adds to the nervousness), it makes sense to divide savings into three or four pieces and convert them depending on the situation. You should pay attention to the Euro, where the potential future growth more.
The danger for Russians in terms of restrictions on the $ is purely illusory. After interest rates on foreign currency deposits declined to the minimum on the accounts of Russians in foreign currency is little left. But the risk of complications in terms of dollar cashless payments is very real. Then it will be difficult to pay for foreign training, for example, or transfer money to a legal entity. But while all these effects are in the theoretical realm.
____________
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari