Will support the ruble at the opening of trading of OFZs and oil

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On Tuesday, July 3, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” fell by 28 kopecks (-0,45%) to of 63.14 Euro – by 18 kopecks (-0.25 percent), to 73,60 RUB Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $2.5 billion (-13,79%), the Euro/ruble – 343,9 million euros (-5,78%).
The Bank of Russia on the 4th of July has set the official exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble at the level of 63,2194 RUB that above the previous close of 8.00 on a COP. the Official Euro to ruble exchange rate was set at around RUB 73,7012 compared to the previous value rate increased by 23.22 COP.
On Tuesday, the ruble partially won back losses from foreign currencies. It strengthened amid the growth of oil prices in the first half of the trades and the General improvement of the situation of risky assets on the Forex market after the statement of the people’s Bank of China.
Managing people’s Bank of China And Gan said yesterday that the recent weakening of the yuan is not a result of the policy of the regulator, and due to market expectations related to uncertainty about the trade conflict with the United States. The Bank monitors the situation on the Forex market and will support the exchange rate stable at a reasonable level.
The fall in the price of Brent oil of $78.52 to $76,66 had a limited impact on the dynamics of the ruble. The dollar increased to 63,37 Euro – RUB to and 73.81 Market reacted negatively to the news Agency of Saudi Arabia SPA that the Kingdom agreed with the request of the United States about increasing oil production.
On Wednesday, the 4th of July, a barrel of Brent is $78,06 (+0,34%). Price recovered from a low of $76,66. So, the oil market today will support the Russian currency at the opening.
The Ministry of Finance on July 4, will hold auctions to sell Federal loan bonds totaling 30 billion rubles, With the successful placement of government bonds in the rouble will receive support.
When failed auctions follow the dynamics of the index RGBI. If it is not reduced, so do not pay attention to the auction results. If the index goes to minus, then the pressure on the ruble will increase.
States today celebrate the Day of independence. Activity on all exchanges will be low. In this regard, on ruble pairs is expected to consolidate in the range of 50 cents, that is 25 cents in each direction from the prices of closing of Tuesday – 73,60 of 63.14 RUB and RUB.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari