Why the ruble will fall

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Oil companies warn of imminent rise in price of gasoline. The Ministry of Finance will continue to buy the currency at record volumes. The Netherlands started to seize assets of Gazprom. Rosneft warned that the tax maneuver in the oil industry will lead to an inevitable increase in gasoline prices. The government decided to reduce duty on crude oil and simultaneously increase the tax on extraction of mineral resources. In the largest oil company in the country warn that these actions will lead to the equalization of domestic and world prices for fuel. By 2024, the oil companies expect a rise in price of fuel by 50%.
Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry has again announced its plans for buying foreign currency in the period from 7 June to 5 July. The volume of purchases will amount almost to 380 billion rubles. This is another record interventions since the introduction of the new budget rule. It is obvious that the actions of the main financial Department of the country will lead to growth of foreign currency.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange is around 62 rubles and 15 kopecks, the Euro traded at the level of 72 rubles 65 kopecks. The MICEX index is at the level of 2315 points, quotes of Brent oil fell again to a minimum per month – $ 74 per barrel. Bitcoins according to the website CoinMarketCap is around $ 7400.
Increase the appetite of the Ministry of Finance will inevitably lead to a weakening of the domestic currency on the Moscow exchange. And the current easing of oil prices this will only help.
Another threat to the Russian financial market has not been reflected in the price, we are talking about the actions of Gazprom. After Switzerland, the Netherlands proceeded to the seizure of assets of a gas giant. Recall that according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, Gazprom has to pay Ukraine compensation in the amount of $ 2.6 billion for gas transit. It should be noted that Gazprom shares almost did not react to this news. Stocks are falling in the range of 0.5%.
The current pressure on the company Alexey Miller has to lead soon to the depreciation of the stock in the area of 135-140 rubles per share, the stock is at 145 rubles 70 kopecks.
Gleb Zadoya,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,