Why the ruble is falling against the dollar review expert

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It is obvious that the theme of new sanctions and falling oil prices in the context of the weakness of the ruble are dominant today. In addition, given the structure of the gold reserves of the CBR, which now the gold is almost 20%, it is difficult to imagine a prolonged weakening of the ruble in the background as continuous strengthening of the main “safety Harbor”.
And the reason for her such behavior is clear to all and is a natural reaction of global investors and sovereign wealth funds on the release of trade wars between the US and China on their new round of escalation after the announcement of trump on the additional taxation of 10% tax Chinese goods at $300 billion And, if the trump matter who in this war will be the winner, then all the other main criterion for “success”, in which the gold “will not go to the ceiling,” not too much collateral damage to the world economy. Although the chances of that are, apparently, becoming more vague.
Speaking about the prospects for U.S. stocks in light of the policy of “arm-twisting” by the US President, we can say that not only anticipated the revival of the aluminum Corporation Alcoa, with the aim of restoring market share which trump so hard collecting all of last year 10% import tariff on aluminium from all over the world, but also a bright future for Apple – recognized pet global portfolio investors in the recent past – was suddenly in doubt.
According to the Wall Street Journal, which, in turn, refers to research company Canalys, sales of smartphones Huawei in China are rising among Chinese buyers in the recent past the most numerous of the consumer market, the us IT giant, Patriotic changing preferences which in their purchases led to the fact that the share of sales of smartphones Huawei in China rose to a record 38% of the total number of smartphones sold in the second quarter.
Rapidly growing sales on the domestic market at present help to the world’s largest manufacturer of smartphones to compensate for falling because of the sanctions the US exports. The campaign is not an accident, but a certain pattern – though this happens in the background, as we understand, received on weekends regulations of the Chinese Ministry of trade to address importers to abandon the purchase of the agricultural products in the United States. You just have to understand the scale of the problem for trump: unlike gadgets that buy not all and not a daily, food – extremely vulnerable category for the United States, because China’s population – nearly half a billion people, or almost five times more than in the United States.
Against this background, even not particularly want to delve into the topic of new anti-Russian sanctions, as they are limited by the regulations only with respect to dollar-denominated debt instruments, of which the majority of Russian issuers prudently managed largely to eliminate for the 5 years that they are against us sanctions.
A ban on a large part of trading operations between Russia and the United States also does not look too convincing, since the volume of bilateral commercial cooperation close to zero – as well as the reciprocal interaction with the IMF and the world Bank, which also ordered “not to give Russia” in debt. On the contrary, Russia is the IMF about 130 thousand SDR-votes – about the same as India’s and bigger than Canada. The potential response of Russia, in principle, understandable, and should rather be questioned by the IMF than of the Ministry of foreign Affairs and Ministry of Finance.
As a consequence of all of this chaos and clutter, today U.S. stocks continue to fall along with the European shares, continuing a wave of sales across Asia.
Futures on the S&P 500 index falling by 14:30 GMT by 0.75%, even though the morning started with their decline of 1.5%, while the decline in shares of companies in the mining, industrial goods and technology led to the decline in the Stoxx Europe 600. Another interesting sign of the day – the Chinese yuan weakened to above $ 7 per dollar, likely indicating that for the National Bank the level is no longer the target. Shares on the Hong Kong stock exchange suffered the most, because the protesters decided to shut down the financial center in connection with the growth of social unrest.
Against this background it is not surprising to anyone continued rally in gold, which on August 2, grew by nearly 4%, and that is called getting traded already at $1471 an ounce.
Meanwhile, the ruble is in the range 64,80-65,15 the dollar, making the 15:00 GMT the value of 64.95 per dollar. Although many indicate as the main reasons for the weakening of the ruble namely the aforementioned sanctions, apparently, a factor in the drop of oil here still plays the first violin.
Oil in anticipation of the reaction of the Saudis (it is expected that at the next OPEC meeting in Vienna will be offered to increase the reduction of quotas from 1.2 million barrels. a day to 1.7 million barrels. a day, that’s all, and waiting for confirmation!) unacceptable for their budget price level of the barrel “stuck” to around $61 per barrel for Brent. If she comes back at least to the middle of its trading range of $60-$70 per barrel prevailing since the beginning of this year, then a proportionate strengthening of the ruble, other things being equal, will not keep you waiting.
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Vladimir Rojankovski,
LIFA,
The expert “International financial centre”