Why the dollar will rise against the ruble until the end of the year
Stock Markets Group – the dollar continues the attack on the Russian ruble. The current day has ended for the Russian currency, another disappointment.
Today on the Moscow stock exchange in the second half of the day, the ruble against the dollar reached 64.88 RUB, against the Euro, the currency has fallen almost to 80 rubles, which was a peak at least two years. At the close of the market the dollar was worth 62.5 ruble and the Euro fell to 77.44 rubles.
Panic continue to control the market and force investors to rouble falling drop the currency in favor of the dollar.
The reasons according to experts, the Russian currency behaves lie in action, or rather inaction of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
In a recent article we noted the absolute indifference of the regulator to a sudden collapse of the ruble. Moreover, long-term stability of the USD/RUB as it turns out, harm the economy and today there is no cause for concern.
However, it is not clear what damage unmanaged collapse of the currency or its stability, which allows citizens not to pay attention to the dollar and the Euro in exchange.
Today the Russian stock market has cooled down a bit from “black Monday” and Tuesday and even for some time, the stock managed to show growth.
However, it is still talk about a complete restore before, because ahead of the weekend and especially to accelerate the growth most likely will not work.
The ruble – the main disappointment of the last days
Analysts say the former resistance value of the Russian currency is questionable. The fact is that until recently, the course was strongly tied to oil prices, which are off to a good start in 2018.
Prices for “black gold” managed to add and to rise from a recent $ 56 per barrel to almost 72$. And all this time the raw material was support the ruble, making it quite attractive for investors.
But the current situation is suddenly revealed that the correlation of these assets is not as strong as many had thought. Today, the oil does not help the ruble, despite the daily growth of not less than 2%.
We believe that the Russian currency will continue to fall, as today there are a number of important reasons, which will put pressure on the Russian economy long enough.
Most of the key highlight are:
Sanctions from Europe and the USA, which will remain for decades and possibly intensify.
The oil situation remains volatile since OPEC+ will not be able to control prices, especially in the context of the tense geopolitical situation in the world.
The actions of the Federal reserve in the current year is expected to significantly strengthen the dollar, which is bad for the ruble.
The geopolitical situation in the world and incidents in which Russia is involved, will make access to external financial flows and markets is even more difficult.
The weak economy and the lack of a strategy for its adaptation to new realities will not allow to fill the budget nothing except the proceeds from the sale of raw materials (oil, gas, metals etc) in the world markets.
All of this will remain the main negative factors for the Russian currency in the medium term.
Stock Markets Group™