Why the dollar by year-end will be above 70 rubles

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The temporary factors supporting the domestic currency virtually ceased. “Long lasting” factors working against the ruble, not only preserved, but will grow in the coming months. For example, the introduction by the Americans of a new “infernal” package of sanctions in November. And promise to continue to tighten them every month or two. The continuing decline in oil prices because of growing global excess of supply over declining demand. Record corporate payments on foreign debt in December and a number of other factors can accelerate and intensify the fall of the ruble.
In addition, we should not forget that, objectively, almost all the subjects of our economic life, except for importers interested in a relatively low rate of national currency. And if the situation aggravated further by falling oil prices and us sanctions aimed against our national debt, the future of our national currency is seen in a rather gloomy colors.
Based on the aggregate impact of the above factors, at the end of this year we can expect the dollar and the Euro against the ruble in the area of 72.50-and 73.80 80.60-81.80 respectively. For comparison: at the time of writing this forecast USD/RUR was quoted at 66.82 and EUR/RUR – 75.79.
Conclusion: those who are going to go during the winter holidays, you better take care to buy the currency now, as positive for the ruble, the effect of the November and December fiscal periods (the last decade of each month) will be blocked by the negative effect of tough new us sanctions (in November) and record corporations payments on external debt (in December). And the end of the moratorium on the purchase of Central Bank currency to the Ministry of Finance on the domestic market then it will be not far off. So do not lose your time and remember that wise prepare sleighs in summer, and cart in winter.
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Andrew Perekalskiy,
Analyst,
Finist