Why oil has fallen?
The prices for oil the day before have experienced the strongest decline over the past few years. What was the catalyst and what to expect next from the oil market? The demand for Russian government debt supports the ruble.
On the eve of the quotes of Brent crude oil fell to $ 73 per barrel from almost $ 79. This is the strongest decline over the past few years. The catalyst for it was the OPEC report, which referred to a sharp growth of oil production in Saudi Arabia and that in the coming year, OPEC forecasts an excess supply in the market of black gold.
However, it should be noted that after the end of may, the quotes of black gold reached its highs over the past few years, they stopped the growth and we for one and a half months saw a trampling in the range from 73 to 79 dollars per barrel.
In any financial market is quite simple rule, if quotes are not growing, then they will fall. Well and, accordingly, this rule played havoc with oil prices. But anything critical has not happened yet, we continue to trade in the range of 73 to 79 dollars per barrel, and only the output below 73 dollars can become a valid threat to the oil market. The ruble ignores the fall in the market of black gold.
Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry managed to hold an auction of Federal loan bonds. The investors were offered securities for a total amount of 40 billion rubles. I must say that both of the proposed release were sold out in excess of the demand. This factor in recent days has played into the hands of the domestic currency, which strengthened against the dollar and the Euro.
Today at auction Moscow stock exchange for one dollar give 62 rubles 20 kopecks, the Euro traded at the level of 72 rubles 65 kopecks. The MICEX index kept at around 2330 points, the quotes of Brent crude oil gets to around $ 75 per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap dropped to $ 6,200.
The selloff in the oil market led to the strengthening of the American currency in the international currency market Forex. This could not affect the dynamics of the American against the Russian ruble. Yesterday we observed a slight weakening of the domestic currency against the dollar. Earlier, our forecast assumes a rough summer for the domestic currency, we recommend to buy dollars in the area of 62 rubles aiming for late summer early fall around 65-66 rubles. These forecasts, we remain in the force.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,