Why investors are leaving Russia?
A trade war between the US and China ended before it even started. Foreigners are selling Russian assets. Oil prices ready to decline.
A trade war between the United States and China, which is so feared by the investors over and not having time to begin. The U.S. Treasury has announced significant progress in negotiations with China. It seems that the tactics of Donald trump in what would be first, to intimidate the “enemy”, and then compromise works pretty well. For financial markets, it is of course positive news. However, such it is for the Asian and American market. But the Russian market is under pressure.
Investors for a fourth straight week sold Russian stocks in and out of Russian OFZ. Recall that failure ended the last attempt of the Russian Finance Ministry to hold auction on placement of government debt. Of the proposed amount of securities to 30 billion, failed to realize the only 21.4 billion. Exit from the Russian assets amid turbulence in emerging markets. Russia is now a safe haven, but either way, the situation on foreign markets will find the response in the value of the Russian shares. This now and fear investors.
Against this background, the exchange rate of the dollar is kept at 62 rubles 30 kopecks, the Euro is trading around 73 rubles 15 kopecks. The MICEX index holds near 2335 points, quotes of Brent crude oil fell below $ 79 per barrel. Bitcoins according to the website CoinMarketCap is in the area of $ 8,500.
Together with the sale of Russian assets and investors are selling oil futures. We have not once said that over the oil market hangs quite a serious threat correction. Setbacks in the market of black gold, we have not seen for a long time, and reaching the psychologically important milestone of $ 80 per barrel, could lead to a correction in district 74 and 75 dollars per barrel Brent. This is negative for the Russian financial markets. Expect ruble depreciation and additional sales on the stock market. We believe that at the end of may, the dollar will be fixed in the range from 62 to 63 rubles.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,