Where the ruble will fall?
The Bank of Russia has twice reduced its investments in US bonds. Oil fell to a new low utyanuv for a domestic currency.
According to the U.S. Treasury Russia sold U.S. government bonds in April in the amount of 47.4 billion dollars. Thus, investment of Russian megaregulators in us government debt has decreased more than in 2 times. The sale happened after the US administration imposed new sanctions against Russia in April. It is likely that the Central Bank fear the freezing of US assets, including public assets.
Meanwhile, the past week has been quite hot for the Russian financial market. At the end of the five days collapsed the price of black gold utyanuv for a Russian ruble and Russian securities. The flames were fanned the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the key rate at 7.25%.
Monday at the auction of the Moscow exchange, the dollar is trading at around 63 rubles 60 kopecks, Euro at 73 rubles 65 kopecks. The MICEX index fell to 2230 points, quotes of Brent crude oil are located just above 73 dollars per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap keeps your rate of 6500 dollars.
Falling oil prices, capital outflows non-residents of the Russian debt, the tough stance of the Central Bank. economic growth prospects in Russia are doing their job. The ruble declines against the dollar and the Euro, falling stocks and bonds Russia. Most likely, the sell-off we saw last week at the Russian bond market, stock and currency markets, it is rather emotional. It is likely that this week we are waiting for some correction, but the mere fact that this sale gives a very serious reason to worry for the future of the domestic financial market.
We have previously talked about the fact that summer is sufficiently simple for the ruble. And if the first half of the summer will be calm enough for rate of the domestic currency, here in late July – early August to avoid weakening the “wood” will not succeed. It is likely we will see new yearly highs on the dollar/ruble already this autumn. Recall that in April, when the United States imposed new sanctions against Russia, the maximum that we saw on the Moscow stock exchange was 65 rubles per dollar. In case of further weakening of the ruble, we are unlikely to stay on that line. You need to wait for a breakthrough in the area 66-67 rubles.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,