What will happen to the ruble after the New year, an expert has predicted

  • And
  • +A

The Bank of Russia, declaring last Friday about returning to the market with the purchase of currency in the framework of the budget rules, has left dangling the question of the purchase of foreign currency, which was not purchased this year, and therefore clear its determination to proceed as early as possible. However treacherously speculative customized market does not allow the financial regulator to carry out his plan, as if throwing him again and again, the gauntlet of challenge to a duel.
As of 15:00 Moscow time, despite the correction of the dollar in foreign markets after the regular session of brutal overseas sales of everything in the Wake of the latest fed meeting, ruble lost with the opening of the dollar almost a full percent and is trading at 68,55. The situation in tandem with the Euro looks slightly better: “wooden” feel better “European” from the opening almost on a ruble to the level 78,27 compared to yesterday 77,32 rubles per Euro.
Against this background, gold continues to look like a safe haven, “the last Bastion”, and it has traded at $1263,35 per Troy ounce, methodically and slowly working your way up to $1300 per Troy ounce.
Central for currency markets today will be publication of U.S. GDP for the 3rd quarter in the final reading, which is scheduled for 16:30 GMT. The interruption of work of the US government (AKA the “government shutdown”) during the night she suddenly re-emerged because of the negative attitude of the house of representatives, refused to vote for trump claimed additional costs for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico, then it was solved, but by morning once again become relevant, which led to the decline of the dollar against foreign currencies and allowed the rouble to regain part of the losses incurred in the footsteps of the press conference Putin. But hope quickly faded.
Historically, the ruble in Christmas week, even after frequent hard shaking of November and the first half of December usually was steady. We are gradually entering the homestretch, and if the expected significant currency volatility – it is only during the January holidays. In the period January holidays, there are exchange rate risks associated with the fact that the Bank of Russia is not involved in market transactions and, in fact, not “watching” the market.
We will be able to maintain the above-mentioned gold, because we expect that China and India traditionally enhance the purchase associated with the annual cycle: in China, physical gold buying on the eve of the New year according to the lunar calendar, and in India ahead of wedding season. To rely on the help of oil the current situation is not necessary.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”