What threatens Moscow a new aggravation of relations with Ukraine?
Yesterday’s marine incident and martial law in Ukraine makes us think about that in the near future is waiting for financial-economic sphere of Russia. New sanctions are introduced almost certainly and can even touch the Russian ruble-denominated sovereign debt, plus all of this is superimposed on the fall in oil prices.
The probability of increasing the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the next meeting increased. And if tough sanctions are imposed, and the Bank of Russia will not interfere in the bidding, the fall of the ruble to the delight of the Russian budget will amount to 10-15%. And of course, you need to remember about the Ukrainian gas transit. Not yet completed projects “Nord stream-2” and “Turkish stream” the issue is not resolved.
Objectively, this whole situation shows Ukraine as an unreliable partner in matters of energy transit. Russian ruble, stocks, particularly Gazprom, probably today will be under pressure from the negative geopolitics.
The Director of analytical Department,