What happens to the ruble when high oil prices?

  • And
  • +A

Russian ruble to the middle of the trading session on Monday is moving very modestly in a basket of currencies. The day was marked decrease, and secondly, the ruble began to recover position. The US dollar to date is 62,19 RUB (-0,1%). The Euro is trading at 73,07 RUB (-0,3%). Official rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, may 22, 62,53 make up a RUB for the American currency and of 73.33 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised to increase by 59 and 16 cents respectively.
Commodity market neutral. A barrel of North sea Brent crude is now worth $78,57 and slightly grows up, a barrel of light oil WTI $71,56 (+0,3%). While the latest news in the market, investors focus on the prospects. Some believe that the barrel has all the chances to pass to $100 as OPEC’s efforts to normalize the situation with the supply of raw material and adapting it to demand. Someone is sure to climb higher the price of black gold, the closer the failure of quotations to bottom and fully reverse movement with all the attendant stress for the market.
It seems that before the summer essentially nothing will change if external background will be similar to the current one. But the outcome of the Vienna meeting of OPEC in June may be do some new insights for the second half of 2018.
The ruble, meanwhile, looks pretty weak despite the fact that oil is expensive and stable. Playing against the ruble, the dollar and the Finance Ministry – in that order. However, the Bank of Russia may increase the attractiveness of its currency, lowering rates at a meeting in June. There will need to closely monitor and review targets on inflation, but such a step with a reduction in the rate by 25 basis points cannot be ruled out.
The US dollar closed trading Monday in the range of 62.00, they comprised 62.65 rubles., the Euro will trade borders 73-73,85 RUB
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,