Trade war and the expectation of statistics will cool the stock market

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Major European indexes on Wednesday showed a negative trend, us markets were closed for independence Day celebrations. Against this background, Russian stocks managed to rise slightly. Ruble Mosberg index was up 0.10%, the dollar-denominated RTS index rose less at a modest 0.01 percent.
Among leaders of growth – “System” (+2,76%) and “Yunipro” (+2,74%). Thursday morning most Asian indices were down 0.7-1.2 percent. With the exception of the Australian ASX, which grew by 0.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 index was trading this morning close to 2.715 points, 0.1% higher than the closing levels of the previous trading day. A noticeable decline in Asian stocks and a moderate morning’s decline in oil prices may exert some pressure on the Russian indexes at opening of the auction. Likely day the corridor index Mosberg is in the range of values 2280-2325 points, RTS index — 1135-1160 points. Publications statements of Russian issuers are expected today.
Unlike the stock market the day before, the ruble had declined moderately, and was characterized by low trading volumes and activity on the background of the closure of American markets. At the end of the day on Masuria dollar with calculations “tomorrow” rose to 63,2400 RUB (+9,5 COP.), European currency has grown to RUB 73,6625 (+5,75 COP.). Support for the rouble has provided stable oil prices.
In the absence of new drivers, we expect a neutral start of trading the ruble at the opening of Masuri. Market activity will be higher than yesterday, but still moderate, currency speculators will expect tomorrow, statistics from the US labor market, which may affect the trajectory of rate increases by the fed. The expected daily range for the dollar amounts of 62.6-63.9 per RUB, for the European currency is 72.9-74.4 per RUB.
On Wednesday, the markets including the oil market was exceptionally inactive due day in the USA associated with the celebration of independence Day. Bidding began at $77.6 per barrel for Brent crude, prices have spent the day in a narrow horizontal range of $77.5 78.1 per and ended near $77,9 formally closing the day slightly upward.
Quotations were supported on Tuesday released data of the American petroleum Institute, which reported a decrease in oil reserves for the week by 4.5 million barrels, after a fall of 9.2 million barrels a week earlier. Thursday morning the price of black gold declined to lows of environment, and then rebounded slightly to 77.7 USD, remaining within a narrow range, the boundaries of which were defined before. Likely daily range for today’s trading, Brent crude is $76.8 per-78,4 per barrel.
The medium range which is defined by the closest significant support levels and resistance levels has narrowed to $76,6-$79,5. Today, after the start of the American trading session will be published data of the energy information Administration of U.S. Department of energy. The expected reduction in oil reserves for the week by 3.5 million barrels, after a fall of 9.9 million barrels a week earlier.
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Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst,
Alpari