Today, the ruble is stable, but it is temporary

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Russian ruble on Wednesday afternoon looks robust on the back of a smooth alignment of investor sentiment around the world. The US dollar to date is 67,32 RUB and grows by 0.1%. Euro rises in price by 0.4% and is trading at RUB 76,76 rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Thursday installed as follows: 67,11 RUB per U.S. dollar and 76,47 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised to increase by 37 and 70 cents, respectively.
The oil market stabilized after the updates last night lows of 14 months. A barrel of Brent traded at $56,35 and restored by 0.2%. It seems that the pitching here is not complete. First, today closed a meeting of fed in the final this year. The rate increase can not be avoided, obviously, and the cost of credit in the United States will increase to 2.25%-2,50% per annum. But most importantly, probably not even that: in comments after the meeting, the head of the fed’s Jerome Powell may refer to the preservation of plans to tighten monetary policy next year.
This will mean that the rate will raise three more in 2019, which is able to cause inhibition of growth of U.S. GDP. It scares commodity investors.
Secondly, tonight will be energy Ministry data on stocks of oil and oil products. Statistics from the API reflects growth stocks, average expectations for the EIA report – the decline for oil. If the data of energy will show the new round of increase in the level of reserves of black gold, “bears” in the raw will get another excuse for sales.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation today is a bad day. Auction on placement of issue 26223 (RUB 10 billion) is declared invalid due to the small number of applications. More precisely, perhaps, the situation was as follows: bids were, but their prices seemed uninteresting office. The Finance Ministry had previously said that no plans to flow funds at any cost. However, the flexibility with which the Agency worked on the debt market in the fall, in December, lost for the third auction in a row actually fail.
The U.S. dollar closed the session environment within 67,05-67,55 roubles, Euro – in the range 76,50-77,15 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari