To foreigners Russian debt almost uninteresting
The share of nonresidents in the Russian OFZ market in October fell to 25%. This was reported today by the Bank of Russia. Last month, the market share decreased by 2.5% and amounted to 1,807 trillion, and the OFZ market in October has expanded to 7,236 trillion In the period from April to October, the share of foreign-owned Russian debt was halved.
This is not surprising. First, the yield is not the same, while the risks remain higher than average. Second, change the mood of investors: if informed BFL bought out in the long term, the market is now more dynamic.
Tomorrow, November 28, the Ministry of Finance have fairly modest plans, only two issues of the placement, both for 5 billion rubles. This is reasonable, given the specific geopolitical situation and the “new old” theme pugalki for investors. Aspect of complicated relations between Russia and Ukraine have not taken into account in the prices for Russian assets and the behavior of the debt market. Now the risk premium can be quite high.
However, it seems that on Wednesday the Finance Ministry will be able to draw the entire amount of funds as is now very sensitive to market sentiment and flexibly under them adjusted. Unbelievable, but it happens.
RUB all of this information until neutral. The Russian currency will react if foreign interest in OFZ bonds will fall sharply, and the Treasury will have to raise the CBR to the redemption of these securities.