Tired of the ruble appreciating against the dollar and the Euro

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Tired of the ruble to rise in price and meets October in comparative equilibrium in a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar is trading at 65,60 rubles (+0,1%) to the present time, the Euro rises by 0.1% and is estimated at RUB 76,15 Courses of the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, October 2, adjusted for a fall and make 65,57 rubles per dollar and 75,98 RUB for Euro. Both estimates were reduced by 2 and 24 kopecks, respectively.
Oil prices remain in the green zone. A barrel of North sea crude oil grades Brent traded at $83 and rises in price 0.3%. Investors in raw materials not yet take into account the factors to strengthen the dollar and expect new information on the plans for the daily production will allow to retest the highs.
From the point of view of the fundamental component of the Russian economy and financial system feel great: we have almost double the budget surplus, GDP growth virtually in line with expectations, foreign exchange reserves were replenished well informed, and oil breaks to new peaks. Capital outflow from markets of developing countries is now less likely that it is a local observation, but in the moment it is true. Against this background, the ruble could be stronger, but a strong national currency would hit, and the levels of competitiveness of Russian goods, and consumers.
In contrast to the positive is to note the presence of the risk of sanctions – there is no guarantee that the U.S. Congress, for example, will not return to the issue of tightening package of anti-Russian sanctions this month, and then the geopolitical aspect covers the impact of high oil prices and the apparent stability. It must be kept in mind.
In General, October may be a quiet month for the habit. The US dollar will consolidate in the range of 64-67, the Euro and try to gain a foothold in the borders 75-78 RUB Session Monday for the pair dollar/ruble will be closed in the range of 65.40-65,95 RUB, EUR/RUB – 76-76,95 RUB.
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,