The West has fallen off the ruble, the dollar is rising. How will Russia respond?
For the first two days of August against the ruble played a few factors. First, the rate of the U.S. Federal reserve, as expected, was reduced by 25 basis points to 2.00 to 2.25%. The negative was that the statement was not phrases regarding further easing. Powell did not rule out that the rate cut will be instantaneous. Accordingly, a long period of declining rates is almost impossible.
Second, the media reported about new sanctions of the USA against Russia in the “case Skrypalia”. A second package of sanctions imposed in the framework of the law on the control of chemical and biological weapons, according to Politico. Introduction of these measures the Congress has long been sought by trump. It is unclear what areas will affect the sanctions.
But a major international film — trump’s plans to impose a ten percent duty on imports of Chinese goods in the amount of $300 billion on 1 September. Says trump, President XI does not fulfill agreements, because the United States must encourage China, the most available method. The market fears of slowing oil demand due to possible aggravation of the trade war the US and China and the slowdown of the Chinese economy.
What will Russia respond to the new pressures of our Western friends and partners?
In the case of the implementation deadlines of projects “Gazprom” (“Power of Siberia”, “Turkish stream and Nord stream-2”) can be argued that the economic sanctions pressure on Russia failed, and transit risks are gone. Easing and lifting of sanctions can be expected, and the first step in 2020 can the EU as the main trading partner of Russia.
Shares of “Gazprom” will become a favorite of the global stock market
We orientirueshsya 30 roubles of dividends per share “Gazprom” by the end of 2019. This implies that the cost of one ordinary share of the Russian gas giant will reach a minimum of 300 rubles., but 600 RUB per share in 2020 doesn’t look exorbitant quote. I recall that in the zero years the share of “Gazprom” gave and at $10-13. The weight of Gazprom in all the stock indexes is very large, accordingly, the shares of “Gazprom” will be the main driver of growth of stock indices of the Russian market. Pipeline projects of Gazprom are about to be completed. “Gazprom” has become a favorite of not only Russian but also global equities.
At the same time, the ruble is still interesting for speculators and dividends of many companies is good and the estimated multipliers whisper, “buy.”
The dollar is a little more expensive
I think that in the near future is to focus on the pair dollar/ruble in the area 64-66 RUB Naturally, it is worth Recalling that the Bank of Russia focused on inflation, not the exchange rate. Besides, in Russia reduced inflation, were recorded even a week-long deflation, i.e. lower prices.
The head of “Information-analytical center,
Alpari (IAC Alpari)