The volatile oil to new threats
A barrel of Brent on Monday, February 11, was trading near 61,50 USD and falls in price, although on Friday the bulls were in the majority.
The number of drilling rigs in the U.S. for the week to 8 February rose 4 units to the level of 1049 pieces. In Canada the same rate was reduced to 3 units and made up of 240 pieces.
After the release of these indicators from Baker Hughes on Friday, oil prices continued to rise gently, but had to decline because the indicator is quite bearish.
It’s pretty simple: the market has a speculative factor, which pushed commodity prices up. It is the US Congress plans to consider a bill that would give States the right to blame the OPEC members in the manipulation of commodity prices. Such ideas have been, and Congress has considered them in a particular approach. However, in this case, the chances of promotion of the bill getting bigger – everyone knows that the US President Donald trump (Donald Trump) is quite hostile in relation to the cartel.
That in reality can make the US Congress? If you really want, you can deprive OPEC market sovereign immunity and make them the most vulnerable to threats of charges in the various conspiracies. And that’s just pushing oil prices up.
If to consider dynamics of the prices on Brent on 4-hour chart, we can see that the medium-term trend is still an upward direction and the short-term is trying to develop reduction. Short-term dynamics is consistent with the divergence in the MACD, which may indicate the beginning of a bearish phase. The next goal will be to reduce the support line of the medium – term trend- the mark of 60.20. A break of that level will confirm downward trend and the next target reduction will be the level of 38.2% according to Fibonacci (of 58.55). Also one should not exclude the possibility of overcoming local resistance at 62,55, and raising quotations to the medium – term resistance- 64,20.
1-hour chart demonstrates a sustained downward channel, but with the formation of convergence on the Stochastic oscillator. Such a pattern may indicate a potential breakdown of the resistance line at the level of 62.55 USD.