The Russian stock market will start the day with a strengthening of the MICEX index
We expect a positive start of trading in Russia, with an increase of about 0.3% index Mosberg, in the range of p. 2270-2275 Closest significant support levels will remain the 2260, 2250 p. as the relevant resistances are the mark 2280, 2290 p.
In the first minutes of trading, the local market will play morning a moderate improvement of the external background. Later index Mosberg can go into a state of lateral movement in anticipation of a new important external signals.
In the US today is going to be released the January statistics for the change in the number of housing starts and issued building permits (16: 30 GMT). In addition, at 18.00 GMT will be published the February index of consumer confidence in the United States by the University of Michigan. The main external reference point for participants of the Russian trading will be the nature of changes in the value of oil futures.
Last Thursday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (+0,33%) and RTS (+1,40%) again ended with an uneven increase. Continued strengthening of the ruble against the North American currency was the impetus for rapid growth of dollar-denominated RTS index. However, it is worth noting that yesterday’s upgrade of local stocks held only in the form of a positive opening. They just moved up under the influence of morning external environment, and spent the rest of the day in a state of unprincipled consolidation. Publication of a large number of important statistical indicators in the United States has not had a significant impact on the domestic stock market, as well as mixed intraday dynamics of futures for oil.
When you look at daily charts of indexes of RTS and Mosberg becomes evident that at the present time, they recovered in the middle part of its six ranges. Thus, medium-term technical picture looks neutral. Futures on Brent crude planned medium-term upside reversal after the rather large fall, held in early February. The only significant risk factor for the local stock market for the horizon of one month, remains only the threat of external sanctions tightening against Russia from the United States. In the last days there were repeated allegations that the new restrictive measures will be imposed in the near future. Most likely, they will be timed to upcoming presidential elections in Russia.
At the close of formal trading session, the March futures on the RTS index (RIH8) went into a state of contango value at 11.8 p, or 0.9% relative to the reference indicator. Futures market participants evaluate perspectives of the RTS index positively.
Against the background of moderate growth index Mosberg held at the end of the trading day, the most liquid stocks closed mostly higher in the range of 1-3% relative to the levels of the previous close. Yesterday was the publication of a number of important corporate news. She gave local investors and speculators some interesting trading ideas for the short and medium term.
For example, the paper clA Yandex (YNDX RM, +3,80%) accelerated its medium-term increase and has updated the historical maximum. Fair reason for such a positive dynamics was made by the publication of the quarterly and annual financial statement of the Issuer according to US GAAP. Net quarterly profit of group of companies “Yandex” in rubles increased by an impressive 189% compared to 4Q 2016.
Annual net profit increased by 28%, to the level of 8.66 billion. Adjusted net income “Yandex” for the quarter and year increased by a more modest 62% and 9%, respectively. In addition to the strong current financial results of the IT company expects further increase in consolidated revenues by 25-30% by the end of 2018.
Shares in NOVATEK (NVTK RM, +1,62%) took place another attempt of the movement to the nearest technical target and the resistance located at around 750 RUB the Impetus for this was the rumors about the possible sale of the Issuer’s share in the project “Arctic LNG 2” the Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco. After a successful beginning of export deliveries in the first phase of the project “Yamal LNG,” NOVATEK plans to launch another comparable performance of the project by early 2023.
Paper Mechel JSC (MTLR RM, +5,40%), Mechel-Pref (MTLRP RM, +1.23 percent) significantly outperformed the market amid news that the part of foreign creditors refused to enforce the debt from the subsidiaries of the Issuer. Thus, overloaded with debts and metallurgical company increased their chances for survival in its current form with the existing assets.
Shares of ALROSA (ALRS RM, -0,65%) with some delay, played the news that the mining company cut its net profit by year-end 2017 9 times. The deterioration of this indicator took place due to revaluation of the stake in subsidiary company “ALROSA-Nyurba”. It will not have a negative impact on the annual results of the ALROSA Group in accordance with IFRS. However, quite a disturbing factor is the reduction of annual revenues of the Issuer grew by 20%.
Note also the negative dynamics of papers of Russian grids JSC (RSTI RM, -3,71%), Russian grids Pref (RSTIP RM, -1,26%). They were sales on the background of statements of the head of the Issuer Pavel Livinsky that the company will significantly increase its debt load in connection with the implementation of the program of introduction of digital network.
Before you start trading in Russia the futures for US stock indices moderate increase in the range of 0.35%. Contracts for Brent crude rose by 0.6%. Gold futures gained in value of 0.4%. Japanese stock index Nikkei225 has added 1,3%.
The external background before bidding in Russia can be characterized as positive. In addition, the evening increase in the value of index futures of Mosuri and RT creates the conditions for a positive start to local trading.
Senior risk Manager,
IK “Nord Capital”