The Russian stock market went into a small plus

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By mid-afternoon the index Mobimii is growing by 0.83% to 2517,82 p., and the RTS grew by 0.89% to 1208,77 p. Friday’s concerns about U.S. restrictions increasingly affected the ruble and the stock market focused on the positive external statistics. China unexpectedly showed growth in industrial activity in March for the first time in four months. Commodity contracts went up, what has inspired Russian bidders. This is especially noticeable on papers “Gazprom” and “Rosneft”. However, most of the steelmakers also rose in price.
The Board of Directors of Sistema JSFC recommended the payment of a dividend of 0.11 per share from retained earnings. Closure of register dividend recommended on July 18. The leaders of the day were paper “Mosenergo”, “Magnet”, “TGK-1 and OGK-2”. Among the outsiders were “TMK”, “System”, “Rusagro” and “Akron”. Activity was relatively high. By mid-day the volume of trading on the Moscow stock exchange exceeded $ 16 billion.
The ruble started the day fairly optimistic, but then lost their morning gains. By the middle of Moscow trading, the barrel of Brent was about 4495 rubles. One-day rate MosPrime has decreased to 7.88%, weekly also to 7.88%, and the month remained at the level of 8.17%. The ruble continues to feel the effects of stuffing information about the new American restrictions as in the case Skipala and impact on the situation in Venezuela.
Some of the new threats was not made public, but the fact the news says that the United States came back from winter hibernation governmental crisis, and pressure on the Russian Federation once again becomes relevant. Therefore, in the near future we can expect the unexpected movements of the exchange rate. From the standpoint of macroeconomics, the Russian currency terms do not change. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI in March rose to 52.8 p. p. from 50.1 in February. By 15:15 GMT USD/RUB – 65,625 (-0,02%), EUR/RUB – 73,712 (+0,07%).
European indices also went up, reacting to the recovery of business activity in China, even though its own statistics of the Eurozone was worse than the preliminary assessment. Inflation slowed in March to 1.4% in December, the conservation at the level of 1.5%. Markit manufacturing PMI declined to 47.5 p. Preliminary estimate indicated the value of the index is 47.6 p. the Main degradation occurred in Germany, where manufacturing PMI fell to 44.1 p., with preliminary estimates of 44.7 p.
However, the main growth in the market shares concentrated in the securities of commodity companies. From the individual stories can be noted, the fall EasyJet 6% after warning that a British exit from the EU could affect net profit in the second half of the year. In the UK, the process of determining the lawmakers ‘ style exit from the European Union. On Monday, the Parliament held another hearing and vote. On Tuesday, Theresa may, could once again propose a plan for approval by the Parliament. By 15:15 GMT DAX 11647,3 p. (+1,05%), CAC 40 5389,85 p. (+0,74%), the FTSE 100 – 7327,8 p. (+0,67%).
The oil continues to rise on expectations of supply shortages in the second quarter. In the USA the number of active oil rigs declining for six consecutive weeks. For last week their number has decreased by 8 units to 816 units, which is the lowest value since April 2018. Moreover, during the quarter their number decreased by 69 units. Production in the United States also ceased to grow in the face of limited transport facilities and dissatisfaction of the consumers about the low quality of the supplied raw material.
By 15:15 GMT Brent crude – $68,56 (+1,45%), WTI – $60,77 (+1,05%), gold – $1296,6 (-0,15%), copper – $6512,48 (+0,61%), Nickel – $13250 (+2,05%), palladium – $1357 (+1,13%).
The dollar index was down 0.13% to 97,11 p. AUD and NZD strengthened 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar. By 15:15 GMT EUR/USD – $1,124 (+0,18%), GBP/USD – $1,311 (+0,54%), USD/JPY – 110,98 (+0,14%).
Futures for U.S. stocks pointed to a strong market launch in the beginning of the day. The NASDAQ may show growth of 1%. The main reasons for optimism are: the progress in trade negotiations with China and Chinese statistics, which showed an increase in manufacturing activity in March for the first time in four months. Retail sales in the U.S. fell in February by 0.2% when expectations of growth of 0.3%. Excluding fuel and car sales fell 0.6%.
Meanwhile, the results for January were revised upward. Instead of rising 0.2% statistics pointed to an increase in sales of 0.7%. After the data, rising dollar index declined slightly. In Russia the market can hold above 2,500 points, the index of Masuri. Improving the statistics on China suggests a stabilization in the raw materials market, which directly applies to Russian corporations. However, reminders about possible U.S. sanctions will keep the ruble from strengthening until clarification of the actions of Washington.
Andrei Kochetkov,
Senior analyst,
“Opening Broker”