The Russian stock market under the power of geopolitics and negativity
On Tuesday, most major world stock indexes fell on the background of worsening trade relations between the US and China, and the growth of uncertainty in the conclusion of a trade agreement between the two countries. In this unfavourable backdrop fell and the Russian market. At the end of the day the ruble Mosberg index lost 0.57% while the dollar-denominated RTS index to the weakening of the ruble against the dollar fell more, by 0.62%.
Among leaders of decrease – RussNeft (-1,95%) and “Tatneft” (-1,93%). The Dow 30 fell thus by 1.79%. In the morning of Wednesday the Asia Pacific region markets were down 0.5-1.5 per cent. Futures on the S&P 500 index was trading in the morning about 2891 p., near the closing levels of the previous trading day. Declining Asian markets and rising oil prices set the contradictory external background before opening the Russian stock market, which can start trading in a neutral, near yesterday’s closing levels. Likely day the corridor index Mosberg is in the range of values 2540-2590 points, RTS index — 1225-1250 points.
After rising on Monday, on Tuesday oil prices dropped. Bidding started at $70.8 per barrel for Brent, grew up in the early morning to $71, and then by evening down to $69,1, but by the end of the day it recovered slightly to $69.3 per. Report of the American petroleum Institute showed a rise in crude stockpiles for the week by 2.8 million barrels after rising by 6.8 million barrels the previous week. In the morning of Wednesday oil quotations have grown up a bit, and were close to $69,9 per barrel. Likely daily range for today’s trading, Brent crude is $69,1-70,5 per barrel.
The medium range which is defined by the closest significant support levels and resistance was reduced to $68,5-of 74.7. Tonight at the statistics for the change in oil inventories for the week will be published by the energy information Administration of the United States. Recall that the previous week they rose by 9.9 million barrels.
Following the stock market and oil dropped on the eve of the ruble. At the end of the day on Masuria, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” rose to 65,4075 roubles (+18 kopeks), and the European currency has grown to RUB 73,1500 (+8,5 COP.). Morning recovery in oil prices is enough to stop the decline of the ruble in early trading. The expected daily range for the dollar — 64,8-66,1 RUB, for the European currency was 72.4 73.9 per RUB.
Senior analyst at information-analytical center,