The Russian stock market: the New sanctions have revived sale

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Because of the package of anti-Russian sanctions, which began to gradually expand in the domestic stock market, the initiative quickly caught the sellers. Sharp rise in the indexes this week looked a bit odd, but it partly explained and a number of corporate news, and neutral assessment of the market risk. Now the situation is changing.
Index Mosberg today went below 2400 points, which is hardly surprising, given the degree of external pressure. The immediate support for the rouble indicator is at a level of 2375 points, under it – 2350 points. Remembering the previous wave of decline, we can say that the bears can move very quickly. The RTS index drops very quickly, clearly ahead of the market, which can indicate excessive market emotions. The decline here seems to stop around 1100 points.
“Crimean” part of the sanctions in itself does not mean much. It will not cause a mass flight of capital, will not be the reason for the sharp depreciation of the ruble and market panic. However, it is understood that it is another short step to the deterioration of Russia’s reputation on the world stage, and no arms race investors in the economy in this scenario will not.
Oil on Friday morning, have been tested important support level of $70,50 for a barrel of Brent, and then attacked an important psychological barrier of $70. What’s next? Probably the passage in the region of $65 per barrel if the market will continue to fear oversupply of black gold (the base is), and would not wait for “rescue” the market from the OPEC+. For the Russian ruble, the decline in oil is really a significant negative, and a temporary lack of response here shouldn’t be overstated.
The dollar for the first time in a long time went beyond the side-channel 65-67 rubles. and traded higher. According to estimates Alpari, it increases the chances of passage next to 67,50-RUB of 69.00 Friday’s Session for the pair dollar/ruble will end around 67,45 RUB, the beginning of trading on Monday will directly depend on the degree of external negativity. Euro/ruble will remain in the corridor 76,20-of 76.75 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari