The Russian stock market strengthened in the second half of the day

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Today, September 2, the Russian stock market opened mixed, but then quickly went to the area of moderate growth. Index Mosberg at the moment increases by 0.83%, while the RTS index goes up, also rising by 0.83%, the uniformity in growth rate or decrease of these two indexes is very rare. The rest of the day we will see the index Mosberg within 2760-2790 points, while the RTS index is in the interval 1300-1330 points.
Lead today, significantly ahead of the market, ordinary shares of Surgutneftegas, valuing more than 5%.
Among other leaders of increase of the action “Norilsk Nickel” (+2,55%), “VTB” (+2,35%), M. Video (+2,2%), “LUKOIL” (+1,63%). Mining companies today still no luck. Outsiders today are shares of Polymetal (-2,12%), and “Raspadskaya” and “Pole”, falling more than 1.5% each.
This week the main event will be the decision of the Bank of Russia’s key interest rate, which will be announced on Friday, 6 September, 13:30 (GMT). We believe that with high probability the key rate will be lowered by another 0.25 percentage points to 7%. In favour of another reduction in interest rates may play a slowdown in the rate of inflation.
Rosstat will publish inflation data for August is likely, too, this week Thursday or Friday We do not exclude that in August the annual inflation rate fell below 4.7 percent, based on the fact that August is a traditional month of deflation. To stock market news about interest rate cut, if it happens, is likely to be positive. Investors due to lower interest rates again will Wake up the appetite for risky and at the same time profitable assets.
However, the Russian ruble may respond to the reduction of the key rate, paradoxically, this has happened more than once. In principle, at lower interest rate hike the value of money must decline, however, it is not excluded that the currency market “read” the news of the reduction of the key rate as the key to future economic growth and the ruble will begin to strengthen again. But we do not expect that a miracle will happen. We believe that the ruble may respond to the reduction of the key rate negatively. Ultimately, high growth rates of the Russian economy, suffering from the effect of the VAT increase and rising housing prices, this year expect difficult.
The current week will be rich in corporate events, primarily on the date of closing of the register for participation in the extraordinary General meetings of shareholders. Large companies consider good tone and the quality of corporate governance dividend payments. We believe that from the point of view of the best ideas dividends – preferred shares of Surgutneftegas and Tatneft, ordinary shares of NOVATEK, MTS, Norilsk Nickel.
Natalia Milchakova,
Deputy head,
“Information-analytical center “Alpari”