The Russian stock market risks continue to fall

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The index Mosberg with a significant decrease in the range of 0.3-0.5%, in the district 2725-2730 p. as the nearest supports will be the levels 2720, 2710 p. Significant resistance is seen around 2740, 2750 p.
After moderately negative opening index Mosberg with the big share of probability will go into a state of consolidation. This will contribute to short presence on the local market of non-residents in connection with a holiday in the United States.
Output significant for the Russian stock market foreign statistics today is not expected. Therefore, in the second half of day the index of Mosuri may continue the sideways movement that does not preclude significant movement in individual securities.
Last Friday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (+0.95%) and RTS (+0.65%) ended with a significant increase in relation to the levels of the previous closing. In the first hours of trading they continued on up the inertia of growth on Thursday. In the second half of the day in favor of local exchange bulls played a positive dynamics of the key European markets and the strong opening of the stock market in the United States.
It should be noted that participants of the Russian trading ignored the sharp evening drop in oil prices. Meanwhile, futures for Brent crude again slipped well below the nearest significant price level of $60 per barrel. During the evening trading session, the dollar index of RTS Mosberg and also not cheaper. Thus, the local stock market at the end of the week looked a little stronger than you would expect.
By the way, the ruble index Mosberg on Friday updated its monthly maximum. In the case of a steady breakdown of a close significant level 2750 p. medium-term technical picture will improve to positive. However, this may not today.
At the close of formal trading session September futures on the RTS index (RIU9) came in as a minor backwardly a value of 2.8 points, or about 0.2% relative to the reference indicator. Futures market participants remain neutral assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index.
In spite of the strong growth of index Mosberg held at the end of the day, the most liquid stocks ended mostly higher in the range of 1-4% compared to the levels of the previous close. After the recent shaft of important corporate news of the information was observed the temporary lull.
Much stronger market traded many representatives of metallurgical sector: GMK Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RM, +3.41%), MMK (MAGN RM, +2.71%), NLMK (NLMK RM, +1.74%), Severstal (CHMF RM, +2.43%), RUSAL plc (RUAL RM, +2.29%), Polyus (PLZL RM, +1.87%). As usual, in terms of the vague prospects of the oil market rate for domestic exporters of metal look more reasonable next step. An additional incentive for purchases in the shares of Norilsk Nickel was updated five-year high in the futures contracts on Nickel.
It is also worth noting the Friday the increased demand in the most liquid shares trade networks: the Magnet (MGNТ RM, +3.07%), FIVE-GDR (FIVE RM, +2.98%), M. Video (MVID RM, +4.39%). Semi-annual financial statements of the issuers has been published for quite some time. In addition, she wore a rather mixed. Therefore, the observed purchases in these securities, most likely, was designed for the long term.
Not without sampling the shopping and stock the electricity sector: FGC UES (FEES RM, +2.78%), RusHydro (HYDR RM, +2.08%), Russian grids JSC (RSTI RM, +1.28%), OGK-2 (OGKB RM, +2.42%), TGK-1 (TGKA RM, +1.82%). Some other representatives of the electricity sector was trading much weaker than the market: Inter (IRAO RM, -2.05%), Yunipro (UPRO RM, -0.37%), Mosenergo (MSNG RM, -0.82%), MOESK (MSRS RM, -2.05%). Medium-term prospects of each of these issuers require separate consideration due to the fact that their microeconomics uneven. Furthermore, for companies of the electricity sector is very characteristic of large transactions on purchase and sale of productive assets, large-scale investment projects and additional issue of shares.
Paper Mechel JSC (MTLR RM, is 2.52%), Mechel-Pref (MTLRP RM, -0.90%) continued the correction decline after a recent surge in purchases related to the news that from the steel company may be a new minority partner in the Elga coal project. In the beginning of last week it became known that the company “A-property” FAS filed a petition for the purchase of 49% in the assets of Gazprombank. Does not the fact that its joint development will be smooth. At the same time a potential sale of remaining “Mechel” controlling interest will not solve existing debt problems of the company.
This morning the futures on US stock indices showed a significant drop in the value of in the range of 0.4-0.7%. Contracts for Brent oil followed Friday’s sharp drop was down 0.5.
Gold futures added to the price of 0.3%. Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite rose 1.3%. Nikkei225 fell by 0.3%.
Given the continued fall in oil futures, as the external background before bidding in Russia can be characterized as moderately negative. This creates conditions for the opening of index Mosberg with a noticeable decrease.
Vitaly Manzhos,
Senior risk Manager,
IR “Algo Capital”