The Russian stock market on Tuesday opened in positive territory

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The Russian stock market on Tuesday opened in positive territory. To date, major indexes are rising by 0.8% on average, demand for papers “Gazprom” and “Gazprom”. Under pressure are shares of AFK “System” and “Akron”.
The external environment for today’s session were favorable. On the eve the U.S. indices not trading due to a holiday on the occasion of Columbus Day, the index futures S&P premarket partially reduced.
The price of oil this morning got a positive. A barrel of North sea Brent crude rises in price 0.7% and costs $84,47. Statistics on stocks this week will be published with a delay of one day due to non-working Monday, because now the market has actually provided to itself.
The Euro/dollar on Tuesday morning will be slightly reduced by 0.1% and is trading around 1,1480. On the eve of the indicators used in macroeconomic statistics was not published, and investors have preferred to save power.
The Russian ruble strengthened in morning a basket of currencies. The US dollar is 66,32 RUB (-0,3%). The main driver is new entry of oil to the peaks. Today’s session for the pair dollar/ruble will be within the boundaries of the marks of 66.00-66,95 RUB, and Euro/ruble – 76,00-76,85 RUB.
Index Mosberg may remain in the hall 2450-2475 points.
The Bank of Russia will not return to lower key interest rates before the end of 2019 – beginning of 2020, it was stated by the head of the Department for monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexey Zabotkin. Thus, we can conclude that for the coming year the regulator considers a fairly conservative scenario of economic development of the country. Earlier, the Central Bank raised the rate to 7.5% amid rising geopolitical risks and preinflation. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation by the end of 2018, inflation will exceed 4%. The tension on the currency market will continue next year.
The ruble will impact geopolitics, probably, the sanctions pressure will increase and you also need to take into account the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In the new year, the controller may resume the purchase of currency on the domestic market for the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Thus, volatility in the ruble pairs will affect the dynamics of inflation. Also on the inflation rate in 2019 will be affected by the increase in the VAT rate. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the inflation rate next year could exceed 5%.
Today the register of shareholders to receive dividends will be closed “MTS” and “MMK”. Canada will release data on construction of new homes. Also speech by the member of the management Board of the Bank of Canada Carolyn Wilkins. Inflation data for September will be released in Ukraine.
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Alexander Razuvayev,
The Director of analytical Department,
Alpari