The Russian stock market on Monday pulled up

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The Russian stock market on Monday rushed up and obviously prepared to update annual maxima. Ambient conditions for this were quite suitable, although it is clearly visible that the market “pull” separate assets. To date, the leading stock indexes grow on average by 0.9%. Plus traded shares of Sberbank and NCSP in the negative zone remain paper “LSR” and “Akron”.
Annual peak is on the level of 2376,96 points on the index of Masuri, investors took place in this area in late February.
The external background to today’s trading day was favorable. The U.S. stock market finished the Friday session of shopping. Index futures S&P premarket increases. Oil prices are in the green zone as investors continue to carefully monitor the relationship between the US and Iran. A barrel of North sea Brent crude traded at $77,50 (+0,5%).
The Euro/dollar continues to rise and rises to a maximum of four weeks. On Monday morning, the main trades are near 1,1770, the market is set to continue movement.
Russian ruble slightly more expensive paired with the us dollar and almost not moving in tandem with the Euro. The U.S. dollar early in the week trading at 62,87 RUB (-0,1%). Likely the range of motion for the pair dollar/ruble today is 62,75-63,25 RUB EUR/RUB will meet within the boundaries of the marks 73,80-74,40 RUB.
Index Mosberg today will try to rise to the annual maximum, the big question is, what will happen next. In the first half of the day is not excluded trades in ruble-denominated index in the hallway 2355-2375 points.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation lays in the next three years the budget surplus. According to authorities, in 2019, the surplus could reach 1.8% of GDP, in 2020 this figure will be equal to 1% of GDP in 2021 will decrease to a surplus of 0.6% of GDP. We believe that such optimism is associated with high oil prices, which may persist in the next two to three years, depending on how it will be regulated by the market.
With high probability, the transaction OPEC+ will exist in one form or another until the end of 2019, after which its parameters can change significantly in the direction of increasing production that will lead to a gradual decrease in quotations and, therefore, reduce revenues. And this is dictated by the decrease in the surplus in subsequent years.
We’ll also assume that with the decline in oil prices, the Ministry will reduce the volume of currency purchases in the domestic market.
The expenditure budget proposed by the Finance Ministry the option will increase by about 1 trillion every year. They will be about 17.8 trillion in 2019, to 18.8 trillion in 2020 and 19.8 trillion in 2021.
Of the most important events of the day is to highlight the speech of the ECB President, Mario Draghi. The register of shareholders to receive dividend on Monday will close “Fortum”, “Bashneft” and “MTS”.
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Alexander Razuvayev,
The Director of analytical Department,
Alpari