The Russian stock market is rising in anticipation of fed meeting

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At the end of trading the index Mosberg up 0.39% to 2493 points, while the RTS grew by 0.53% to 1220 points.
The influence of the external background today were positive: the American S&P 500 index in the evening had grown by 0.53% and STOXX 600 added of 0.64%.
Today starts the March fed meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday at 21.00 GMT a decision on the key rate and update of macroeconomic projections. At 21.30 GMT will be a press conference by fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the special dynamics of the futures exchange CME, the probability of maintaining rates at current levels (the range of 225-250 b.n.) accounts for 98.7%. Expected that by the end of the meeting, the fed’s rhetoric will be significantly mitigated. Such expectations are already largely incorporated in the price of the risky asset, but perhaps a slight increase in demand.
Among shares on the Moscow stock exchange today, the leaders of growth was marked “TMK” (+3,1%), “IDGC of Volga” (+1,9%) and Tatneft (AO: +1.9 per cent). Worse than market looked X5 (-1,9%), MMK (-1.7%) and “Severstal” (-1,4%).
“MTS” (-0,7%) very poorly reported for the 4th quarter of 2018. Excluding the effect of new IFRS OIBDA margin key from the business point of view of the Russian segment amounted to 37.7% – the worst rate in at least the last 5 years. We believe that this is a consequence of a pressure on the whole sector growing due to the expansion of the Tele2 competition “law of Spring” and the fall in real incomes. However, we continue to recommend buying shares, waiting for the decision of the company’s dividends.
Oil the evening was reduced in the range of 0.3%: a barrel of Brent cost $67,5 and WTI – $59,3. Quotes are near annual highs amid production cuts OPEC+ and the ongoing crisis in oil-producing Venezuela.
Dollar night added 0.04 percent to 64.4 rubles, and the Euro was up 0.2 percent to a mark of 73.1 per RUB, We believe that the current prices correspond to the fair value of the national currency, further strengthening without the appearance of new drivers is unlikely.
At the evening session, we expect stable dollar and quotations of futures on index Mosberg.
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Timur Nigmatullin,
Analyst
“Opening Broker”