The Russian stock market is ready to continue the restoration, if not the war

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On Wednesday, major world indices fell on concerns related to the situation around Syria. On such background the Russian market closed mixed again. The ruble index Mosberg added to 0.85%, continuing to win back losses of Monday. Dollar-denominated RTS index has decreased on 0,67%, which is due to the fact that by the close of trading in the shares of the ruble against the dollar has not yet had time to recover, it happened late in the evening. Among leaders of growth – “Rosneft” (+4,85%) and “Safmar” (+4,71%). At the same time the us Dow Jones lost 0.9 percent.
Thursday morning Asian indices were down 0.1%-0,4%. But futures on the S&P500 index was trading in the morning about 2646 points, 0.2% higher than the closing levels of the previous trading day. Today we expect continuing recovery in stock prices, which until the end played a factor has risen in price of oil, reacting primarily to the sanctions story.
However, this story has already played not only the stock but also the foreign exchange market, at least until the announcement of new sanctions, the shares have a chance to return to growth. Likely day the corridor index Mosberg is in the range of values 2170-2215 points, RTS index — 1075-1095 points. Today operating results for the first quarter will publish “Children’s world”.
After two days of collapse, on Wednesday, the ruble has moved to strengthen. At the end of the day on Masuria dollar with calculations “tomorrow” fell to 62.59 RUB (-43,25 COP.), and the European currency declined to 77,4625 RUB (-38,75 COP.). However, yesterday was dramatic enough for the ruble was not immediately successful. In the first half of the day, the fall of the ruble continued, and he has updated the local minima. The dollar rose to the values of the end of November 2016, and the Euro and all went to the values of February of the same year. The fall of the ruble within a trading session contributed to trump’s tweet about the need for Russia to prepare for war in Syria. However, towards the evening, contributing to the market came from the Russian Ministry of Finance.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that his Department was suspending the purchase of foreign currency in the market, which immediately stopped the fall of the ruble. Unexpectedly, help came Siluanov his American counterpart Steven Mnuchin. He reiterated that he supports the recommendation of the US Treasury to impose sanctions against Russian public debt, published in January this year in a special report. Thus, through the joint efforts of the two Ministry of Finance, the ruble managed to halt the steep decline and return to growth.
No talk of sanctions aimed at Russia’s public debt, the ruble no more reason for falling, and he can only play high oil prices. Remains valid the risks associated with possible new personal sanctions and the situation in Syria. The expected daily range for the dollar is 62,0-63.2 per RUB, for the European currency — 76,7-78,2 RUB.
Thursday morning the price of black gold is moderately grew to $71.8 per barrel. The market focus remains the development of the situation around Syria. Likely daily range for today’s trading, Brent crude again today if everything will be no missile attacks, is $71.0 per – $of 72.5 per barrel.
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Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst,
Alpari