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Last Tuesday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (-0.76%) and RTS (-0.36%) ended with a moderate decline relative to the levels of the previous closing. They re-moved “out of step” with respect to the changing background. In particular, a sharp intraday fluctuations in the value of oil futures did not found a visible reflection in the dynamics of these indexes. In General, the indexes of RTS and Mosberg spent the last day in a state of unprincipled sideways in the negative territory. This contributed to a clear shortage of important internal and external news. Well, some advantage in favour of the local “bears” were corrective in nature.
An additional factor in favor of a temporary decline in trading activity in Russian stocks has become abbreviated by the presence of non-residents. Today, the U.S. will celebrate the independence day. In this regard, yesterday’s trading on the new York stock exchange closed earlier than usual and the mood of investors and speculators overseas was not working. Moreover, many professional bidders traditionally prefer not to open new positions in thin pre-holiday market.
At the close of formal trading session September futures on the RTS index (RIU8) came to the state of backwardly size 19.5 points, or about 1.7% relative to the reference indicator. Futures market participants remain negative assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index.
Against the background of significant decline of the index Mosberg held at the end of the trading day, the most liquid stocks ended mostly lower in the range of 1-2% relative to the levels of the previous close.
The shares of Rosneft (ROSN RM, -1.20%) continued to trade weaker market after the recent closure of the register of shareholders to receive annual dividends. They will be paid in the amount of RUB 6.65 Now these securities are traded approximately at the same distance from the important long-term resistance located around 400 RUB. it is possible that in a few days we will see new attempts of breakdown of the specified level.
Paper FIVE-GDR (FIVE RM, -4.12%) closed in dangerously close to his six-month low. They began to be traded on the Moscow stock Exchange on 1 February of the current year and during that time lost about 27%. Thus, they formed a medium-term downtrend that may be developed further on the time horizon of a few weeks. The payment of dividends debut failed to keep those paper sales.
Illiquid securities Quadra-power generation JSC (TGKD RM, -6.23%) almost completely lost its strong growth, which took place last Friday. Recent purchases were linked to rumors that the Issuer may soon be replaced by the controlling shareholder. It can be a company TGK-2. In this regard, minority shareholders were counting on an opportunity to sell their shares under the option offer.
The leader of increase among the relatively liquid securities were the shares of Aeroflot (AFLT RM, +2.07%). Although significant one-day gain, the medium-term technical picture in these securities continues to remain neutral. Signal for a more or less confident of the game to increase they can become a overcome the strong resistance level located in area 145 RUB From a fundamental point of view the reason for the purchase of these securities can serve as a stable improvement of performance indicators of Aeroflot group.
Shares of ALROSA (ALRS RM, +0.65%) continues to “climb” up within two weeks of the uptrend. Yesterday they managed to hold above the nearest significant support level, located at around 100 RUB. however, trading volume in these securities has significantly decreased, suggesting a possible depletion of the observed wave purchases.
The reason for the recent surge in demand in them was the expectation of the revision of the dividend policy of the Issuer. Mining company plans to move to the practice of paying dividends with a periodicity of 2 times a year. Furthermore, the amount of dividend payments will be tied to free cash flow, but it will be at least 50% of IFRS net income.
Before you start trading in Russia the futures for Brent crude rose by 0.5%. Gold contract added to the cost of 0.4%. Japanese stock index Nikkei225 decreased by 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng sank 1.3%. The stock market in the United States today will be closed in observance of independence day.
The external background before bidding in Russia can be characterized as uncertain or mixed.
• The index Mosberg a moderate increase of about 0.3%, near the mark 2310 p. as the nearest supports will again be levels, 2300, 2290 p. Significant resistance is seen around 2320, 2330 p.
• In the first minutes of trading, the local market will play a morning increase in the cost of oil futures. After a moderately positive start of trading the index Mosberg can go into a state of consolidation. This will contribute to a weakened influence of the external background associated with the holiday in the United States.
• The release of important foreign statistics today is not scheduled. In the afternoon, the local stock market may continue its sideways movement in a low trading activity. This does not exclude notable speculative movements in individual securities.
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Vitaly Manzhos,
Senior risk Manager,
IK “Nord Capital”