The Russian stock market in searches for landmarks

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On Wednesday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (-0.31%) and RTS (-0.74%) ended with a moderate decline relative to the levels of the previous closing. The rapid fall of the dollar-denominated RTS index was due to a formal weakening of the ruble. At the same time, the ruble Mosberg index spent the entire trading day in a state of consolidation. His slight advantage in disadvantage was associated with deterioration of moods in the oil market.
By the way, the weekly statistics from the US Department of energy indicated concurrent weekly increase in stocks of oil, gasoline and distillates overseas. After the release of these data the futures for Brent oil increased the drop and dipped to $56 per barrel. Later, they managed to win back part of its drawdown. However, these contracts are now firmly established below the nearest significant price level of $60, which is interpreted as a negative medium-term signal.
We add that the index Mosberg yet managed to hold above its two-month low, updated on Monday. However, it continues to move dangerously close to the level of 2650 p. is Quite likely drawdown below the selected level in subsequent trading days will form a technical signal for further play on the slide.
At the close of formal trading session September futures on the RTS index (RIU9) came to the contango in the value of 15 points, or about 1.2% relative to the reference indicator. Futures market participants a better assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index.
On the background of a slight decrease in the index of Masuri held at the end of the day, the most liquid stocks ended with a mixed deviation in the range of 1-3% relative to the levels of the previous close.
The leader of the fall among the blue chips made paper Sberbank JSC (SBER RM, -1.66%), Sberbank-up (SBERP RM, -1.03%), VTB (VTBR RM, -1.80%). Apparently, sales in the banking sector were associated with a formal weakening of the ruble. Add that to yesterday’s publication of financial results of Sberbank’s RAS for 7 months of the current year failed to keep his stock from falling. Meanwhile, net profit of credit organizations since the beginning of the year increased by 10.8%.
Significantly weaker than the market also closed paper Tatneft JSC (TATN RM, -1.65%), Magnet (MGNТ RM, -1.71%), MMK (MAGN RM, -1.59%), Enel Russia (ENRU RM, -2.34%), the PEAK (PIKK RM, -2.22%). As we can see, the sale of certain securities representing different market sectors, was of the pinpoint nature. They were not United by a common idea.
Much stronger market traded shares of Gazprom (GAZP RM, +0.40%). They were supported by the news that the gas monopoly already next autumn can sell the rest of quasicanonical shares. The value of this package is around 3.7%. Last month 2.9% quasicanonical of shares of “Gazprom” sold “in one hand” in a single application.
According to recent media information in the new location will be able to take part are foreigners. We add that recent formal increase in the proportion of shares of “Gazprom” in free circulation stimulated the growth in the value of shares of “Gazprom”. For the closing of the dividend gap they needed just 9 trading days.
It is also worth noting the established purchase shares of the subsector non-ferrous metallurgy: Norilsk Nickel (GMKN RM, +1.51%), Polyus (PLZL RM, +2.25%), Polymetal (POLY RM, +3.41%), RUSAL plc (RUAL RM, +0.35), VSMPO-AVISMA (VSMO RM, +0.24%). In favor of all of these securities played yesterday, the combination of the weakening of the ruble and falling oil prices. In addition, shares of gold mining companies Polyus and Polymetal had further impetus for growth. Yesterday, gold futures for the first time since April 2013 has exceeded the important psychological price level of $1,500 per Troy ounce.
This morning the futures on US stock indices show a fairly strong increase in the cost in the range of 0.4-0.7%. Contracts on Brent crude after yesterday’s drawdown rose by 3.0%. Gold futures fell in price by 0.5%. Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite rose 0.9%. Nikkei225 grew by 0.5%.
The external background before bidding in Russia can confidently be described as positive. This creates conditions for the opening of index Mosberg with significant growth.
The index Mosberg with a strong increase in the range of 0.5-1% in the region of the 2690-2700 p. as the nearest supports will be the levels, 2680, 2670 p. Significant resistance is seen around 2710, 2720 p.
In the first minutes of trading, the index Masuri will play a significant morning improvement of an external background. Later he may continue improving in the area 2700-2710 p.
In the second half of the day is the key external reference point for participants of the Russian auction will remain the dynamics of oil futures. Indirect effect on local stock market can provide weekly data on the change in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States (15.30 GMT).
Vitaly Manzhos,
Senior risk Manager,
IR “Algo Capital”