The Russian stock market has lost the pre-fuse

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The index Mosberg with a small deviation in the range of 0.1-0.3%, near the 2560 p. as the nearest supports will be the levels 2550, 2540 p. Significant resistance will be 2580, 2590 p.
After the neutral start of trading the index Mosberg can go into a state of consolidation. This contributes to the uncertain state of the external background this morning. In addition, members of the local trades will expect the outcome of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the CBR (13.30 GMT).
In the afternoon some influence on the course of trading in Russia may have published a number of important statistical indicators in the United States. The most significant of them will be the change in GDP for 1 quarter (15.30 GMT). In addition, at 17.00 GMT will be released the final April estimate of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.
Last Thursday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (-0.70%) and RTS (-1.42%) ended with an irregular decrease in relation to the levels of the previous closing. The rapid fall of the dollar-denominated RTS index was due to a long-overdue corrective weakening of the ruble. As for the ruble-denominated index Masuri, we have seen in the attempts of growth in the middle of the day. However, he managed to stay in positive territory. Against local exchange bulls played the intraday reversal in the futures of “black gold”. Contracts for Brent crude retreated down significantly from its fresh six-month high.
An additional negative factor for the local stock market made concerns the exacerbation of low-intensity conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Almost immediately after the completion of presidential elections in the neighboring country, became aware of the fact that residents of separate districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine will have the opportunity of obtaining Russian citizenship in a simplified manner. It is obvious that this event will be a stimulus to strengthen the sanctions rhetoric by the US and other Western countries.
Add that two-day falling of indexes of RTS and Mosberg until it looks threatening. They still have a positive medium-term technical picture. She clearly will worsen only in case of a drawdown index of Masuri below $ 2500 p. Now it has good chances of transition to state medium-term consolidation above this level. As for the dollar-denominated RTS index, it is in the next few days may be under pressure due to a trend towards the weakening of the Russian currency.
At the close of formal trading session, the June futures on the RTS index (RIM9) came to the state of backwardly a value of 20 points, or about 1.6% relative to the reference indicator. Futures market participants remain negative assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index.
Despite a significant drawdown of the index Mosberg held at the end of the day, the most liquid stocks ended mixed, irregular a deviation of 1-5% in relation to the levels of the previous closing. This was facilitated by the exit of a number of fairly interesting corporate news.
The leaders of the fall among the blue chips were the shares of Sberbank JSC (SBER RM, -3.47%), Sberbank-up (SBERP RM, -2.44%). As usual, the impetus for their sharp drawdown was a significant weakening of the ruble against major foreign currencies.
Noticeably weaker market also closed papers of LUKOIL (LKOH RM, -1.94%), Rosneft (ROSN RM, -1.20%), MTS (MTSS RM, -1.33%), VTB (VTBR RM, is 1.10%), TransContainer JSC (TRCN RM, -3.45%).
A notable event of the day was accelerated mid-term increase in the value of securities FIVE-GDR (FIVE RM, +5.52%). The impetus for this was made by the publication of strong quarterly financial statements of the Issuer in accordance with IFRS. She pointed to an impressive increase in net profit of the trading network to 65.2% in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2018. The revenue growth in Q1 amounted to 15.5%. In addition, comparable sales for a retailer during the reporting period increased by 5.0%.
The shares of NOVATEK (NVTK RM, +3.40%) used the raised demand against the background of the message of the Issuer on the signing of binding agreements with China’s CNOOC Ltd. over the sale of 10% in the project “Arctic LNG 2”. In addition, at the end of Q1, JSC NOVATEK increased its net profit under IFRS of nearly 9 times, to the level of 381.8 billion rubles Repeated improvement of this indicator was due to one-off factors. However, attributable to shareholders of JSC NOVATEK normalized profit for the 1st quarter also increased by 40.1%.
ClA shares of Yandex (YNDX RM, -0.12%) closed with minor decline. Meanwhile, the range of intraday movement was more than 6.5%. We watched them quite strong intraday gain was followed by a temporary drawdown. The reason for such large-scale movements were made by the publication of the quarterly financial results of the Issuer. The net profit of IT holding during the reporting period increased by 69% and amounted to 3.1 billion rubles. in addition, the company Yandex raised its forecast for revenue growth by the end of 2019 to 30-34%. And yet another attempt of breakdown of the specified securities significant resistance level located in area of 2500 p., was unsuccessful.
Before you start trading in Russia the futures for US stocks were a bit mixed deviation. Contracts for Brent oil fell by 0.2%. Gold futures added to the price of 0.2%. Japanese stock index Nikkei225 has lost 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.2%.
The external background before bidding in Russia can be characterized as uncertain or close to neutral. This creates conditions for the opening of index Mosberg, with a slight change.
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Vitaly Manzhos,
Senior risk Manager,
IR “Algo Capital”