The Russian stock market found a reason for growth amid geopolitical pressure

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The Russian stock market on Thursday opened with a raise. To date, the leading stock indexes rise on average by 0.7%. By the end of the interest were shares of “NOVATEK” and “Russian grids”. In the “red” zone held securities of “Bashneft” and “MegaFon”.
The external background to today’s trading has developed moderate. Us markets the day before vigorously bought index futures S&P premarket slightly reduced. Oil prices are kept low minus.
A barrel of Brent traded at $of 59.10 (-0,05%). The market actively played all statistics US Department of energy, which confirmed the tenth consecutive week of growth of oil reserves. It is pronounced “bear” signal, but now, when capital markets are positive, investors are willing to ignore that.
The pair Euro/dollar on Thursday morning, rises slightly. Basic trades in the first half of the day to go around 1,1380. Yesterday came the second figure on US GDP in the third quarter. It was expected that the economy grew a little faster than it was in the first reading, but the rate of increase remained unchanged at +3.5% q/square
Russian ruble slightly strengthened to a basket of currencies in the first hour of trading. The U.S. dollar is trading at 66,80 RUB (-0.2 percent). On the eve of the last auction of the Treasury Department was able to attract the amount of RUB 10 billion – due to the flexible proposal. The most probable trading range for the pair dollar/ruble today is of 66.65-67,10 RUB, and Euro/ruble –75,80-76,25.
Index Mosberg protorguetsya on Thursday in borders 2275-2400 points.
According to information from business circles, the situation on the world market of black gold which recorded a significant drop in prices plays into the hands of the largest importers of oil, which are today the US and China. It can serve as a signal of the imminent termination of a trade war between Washington and Beijing about what is likely to be announced by Donald trump and XI Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires from 30 November to 1 December. We continue to see the target with the oil price around $50. The only thing that can prevent this scenario is a large reduction in quotas by OPEC+, which from our point of view in the current situation unlikely.
The head of the fed Jerome Powell on Wednesday made the new York economic club. The Powell speech regarding future monetary policy and current economic situation were more soft than usual, which caused a rapid growth of American stock indices, which by results of trades grew on average by 2.5%.
Estimates of the fed’s current interest rate is close to neutral level, for the participants of the market means further rate increase to neutral levels, but without excessive zeal. In fact, the regulator’s policy rate may be less rigid than before.
During the day the financial statements under IFRS for 9 months of 2018 will publish RusHydro and Aeroflot. Meetings of the Board of Directors will hold “IDGC of Volga” and Bank “St.-Petersburg”.
Switzerland and France will present the GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. Speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi. Germany will publish statistics on the labor market and inflation. States will present the world the FOMC minutes, as well as data on pending home sales in the real estate market.
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Alexander Razuvayev,
The Director of analytical Department,
Alpari