The Russian stock market could rise as the ruble and oil

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Stock indexes today are unable to rise as the ruble and oil, because every now and then stumble on obstacles in the form of visible or hidden risks. For example, investors are seriously worried (and they have reasons) raising taxes in Russia (NDFL, in the first place) in order to Finance the implementation of the may decrees of the President.
Index Mosberg stored within 2315-2350 points, the boundaries of the range spacious and pretty tough. In order to break any of them need a good reason. It is clear, walk to the annual maxima has been postponed. The RTS index looks fresher and preparing to storm 1200 points, but significantly above will be difficult to break.
Shares of PhosAgro all day are among the leaders of decline. Paper are trading in the downward channel from may 3, but the sellers, sluggishly pushing the share down is activated on Tuesday, and on the absence of corporate news. It is possible that the company as an exporter lose weight securities due to the rapid strengthening of the ruble in recent days. In addition, could work technical factor after breaking the intermediate support at 2400 RUB the pressure on the paper increased.
Today the Russian ruble continued its rally. The U.S. dollar went down to RUB 61,15, but remains within the medium range 61-63 RUB, so the fluctuations are still within the normal range. In favor of the Russian currency plays passing in these days the tax period in Russia, when exporters sell foreign currency earnings and buy rubles, and discussion of the ideas of Alexei Kudrin about changes in budget rules. If to soften the terms, the pressure on the ruble will be reduced, but whether it is power, the big question.
Against the ruble is still running an active debate about where the government will find money for the implementation of the may decrees and other news noise. While the dollar remains above 61,0 RUB, the reason for shift trading strategy no, but here, it is assumed the probability of passage in the direction 60,50 RUB and then return to 62-63 RUB do Not underestimate the dollar on the world market and the steps of the U.S. Treasury.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari