The Russian stock market cautious in growth

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Last Tuesday, the main Russian stock indices Mosberg (+0.26%) and RTS (+0.16%) ended with a slight increase as compared to the levels of the previous close. After close to neutral open they spent the trading day in as unprincipled consolidation within narrow ranges. The local stock market almost “stamped” on the spot.
It is worth noting that the ruble index Mosberg yesterday managed to formally update its six-week high. Thus, it formed a positive technical signal for further games on the rise. However, local exchange, the bulls did not hurry to open new positions. They kept a moderate intraday deterioration of moods in the oil market.
However, late in the evening, the futures on Brent crude once again updated its annual high. This was facilitated by the signals at the reduction of the total supply of “black gold” from members of the OPEC oil cartel. A significant contribution to this trend has made the current drop in oil shipments from Venezuela. In addition, Russia has also reduced the average daily oil production in March of 100 thousand barrels.
At the close of formal trading session, the June futures on the RTS index (RIM9) came to the state of backwardly 11 p., or about 0.9% relative to the reference indicator. Thus, the futures market participants remain negative assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index.
On the background of insignificant growth of the index of Masuri held at the end of the day, the most liquid stocks ended the day mixed with a moderate deviation in the range of 1-2% relative to the levels of the previous close.
The most notable event of the day the market was a strong increase in the cost of illiquid securities Tape Dr (LNTA RM, +4.32%). It was associated with a number of important corporate news of the Issuer. Yesterday it became known that the company “Severgroup” entered into a binding agreement for the purchase of two large blocks of shares of the Issuer. She’s just buying some 41.9% of the capital “Tapes”. The closing of this transaction involves the offer to purchase from the minority shareholders at a price of $3.6 per GDR, or $18 per share.
At the current rate it is about 236 RUB per GDR. Thus, GDR trading network was objectively a stimulus to growth in the direction of the specified price targets. Moreover, the General Director “Tapes” Herman Tinga said that the company “Severgroup” intends to not less than 50% of actions “Tapes”.
From a technical point of view we are seeing in these papers an attempt of the medium-term reversal up. However, in the coming days they can stabilize near the target level of RUB 236 In any case, these securities are traded on the outskirts of a fairly strong resistance area located in the area of 240-250 RUB So the probability of a further substantial increase remains in question.
It is also worth noting the rapid increase in the illiquid shares of PEAK (PIKK RM, +2.48%). A clear positive for them was made by the publication of the annual financial results of the developer in accordance with IFRS. Became aware of the increase in annual net profit of the Issuer is almost 7 times to a level of 21.3 billion rubles, While total revenue last year increased by 40.4%.
Direct and indirect support for the stock LUKOIL (LKOH RM, +0.83%) has continued the program of redemption of these securities on the open market. It will last until the end of 2022. Yesterday they continued their long-term uptrend and once again updated the historical maximum. Nearest technical target and the resistance to them is significant “round” mark was 6000 RUB.
Noticeably weaker market yesterday closed paper Tatneft JSC (TATN RM, -1.04%), Surgutneftegaz-Pref (SNGSP RM, -1.53%), MMK (MAGN RM, -1.31%), LSR (LSRG RM, -2.28%), Raspadskaya (RASP RM, -1.34%).
Before you start trading in Russia the futures for US stock indices showed a significant increase in the cost by 0.5% on average. Contracts for Brent crude rose by 0.6%. Gold futures rose in price by 0.2%. Japanese stock index Nikkei225 grew by 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.9%.
The external background before bidding in Russia can be characterized as positive. This creates conditions index Mosberg with moderate growth.
• We expect a positive opening index Mosberg with a moderate increase of around 0.3%, close to a level of 2535 p. as the nearest supports will be the levels 2520, 2510 p. Significant resistance is seen around 2540, 2550 p.
• In the first minutes of trading, the index Masuri will play morning improvement of an external background. Later we can see him attempt growth in the area 2540-2550 p. This contributes to the recent update index Mosberg their medium-high.
• In the second half of the day in the U.S. will be published a large number of important statistical indicators. The greatest practical significance of them for the local stock market will have a weekly change in stocks of oil and oil products from the US Department of energy (17.30 GMT).
Vitaly Manzhos,
Senior risk Manager,
IR “Algo Capital”