The Russian share market confidently grows
On Tuesday morning, the RTS index and the index of Mosuri in the green zone, most of the chips traded in positive territory. Index Mosuri will hold today’s auction in the hallway 2560-2600 points. Brent back above $71, and remains the main driver of growth in Russian shares. Recall, from our point of view, in case of realization of a positive scenario we will see in 2019 the index Mosberg in the range 3100-4100, while the RTS index is at 1500-2000 points.
Russian ruble slightly up against the dollar and the Euro. The expected corridor for the pair dollar/ruble is 64.6 and 64.9, the Euro/ruble – to 72.9 to 73.2. High oil prices and relatively weak ruble is a dream come true of Finance.
Presidential elections in Kazakhstan will be held on 9 June, declared in address to the nation the head of state Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. According to him, the decision on early elections was discussed left a senior post Nursultan Nazarbayev. After the elections, probably, it will be possible to say that the transit authority was completed. Before the election we can talk about exposure to tenge political risk.
Russia’s international reserves amounted to us $487,8 billion Main indicators of state finances broke a five year record. The first of April 2014, the reserves amounted to $486 billion, the Bank of Russia last year increased its monetary gold reserves by 275 tonnes to 67.9 million ounces (more than two thousand tons). The head of the Central Bank has repeatedly said that the regulator has a policy for diversification of investments of international reserves, taking into account all risks, including financial, economic and geopolitical.
Last year, after the introduction of Washington’s anti-Russian sanctions, the Bank of Russia began to sell U.S. government bonds. By the early fall of 2018 investments, which in 2010 was $176 billion, fell to $14 billion in international reserves Now exceed gross external debt. The target with the size of international reserves is $500 billion and likely to be achieved. High oil prices provide a strong balance of foreign trade. The question of why the Bank doesn’t want to move to a policy of a strong ruble remains open. A strong ruble is the import of technology and a higher quality of life of Russians. And, of course, a good bargaining chip in negotiations with partners in the CIS.
EUR/USD is traded at 1,127. The market focuses its attention on the ECB meeting on 10 April, plus on the same day will be released the minutes of the last fed meeting.
____________________ Alexander Razuvayev,
Director of information-analytical center,