The Russian MICEX index on the day rose by 0.2% and the RTS rose 1.6 percent
At the end of the day the Russian market has grown by almost 0.2% to 2379 items, and RTS thanks to a powerful strengthening of the ruble gained 1.6% to 1,117 points. Among industry indicators, the leaders of growth were the financial sector (+1.8%), the outsiders were oil and gas (down 0.6%).
The external background is quite negative … the main us stock index the S&P 500 by evening has lost 0,02%, while the index of the EU STOXX 600 lost 0,41%. According to Reuters, Britain and the EU still reached a preliminary agreement on Brexit after which lasted more than a year of negotiations.
Retail sales in China in October grew by 8.6% yoy, expected +9.1 percent. Industrial production in China for October increased 5.9% yoy, expected +5.7 percent. German GDP for the 3rd quarter added 1.1% yoy, consensus +1,3%. The Eurozone industrial production for September grew by 0.9% y/y, expected is +0.5 percent. Eurozone GDP for Q3 showed growth of 1.7% yoy, in line with expectations. The consumer price index in the US rose in October by 2.5% yoy – in line with expectations.
On the Russian market in leaders of growth were Raspadskaya (+6,5%), “Aeroflot” (+6.1%) and Moscow exchange (+5%). The outsiders were traded by “Tatneft” (-3,9%), “Rosneft” (-3,7%) and “RusGidro” (-2,7%).
It became known that the Board of Directors of Raspadskaya may consider the issues concerning dividend policy in December.
Shares of Aeroflot rose in price following the collapse of the ruble in oil prices (falling dollar prices in the conditions of strengthening of the ruble), which should increase the profitability of the company, of which fuel accounts for almost a third of the cost of the ticket.
Near futures for the basic grades of oil was added within 1.6%: a barrel of Brent cost $66,5; and WTI – $56,5. According to the report, the IEA, oil supply has grown sharply in October to 2.6 million bar. per day by increasing production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. Meanwhile, there are expectations that the OPEC agreement+ largely eliminates this increase in case of approval.
In the foreign exchange market United States dollar the evening lost 1.6 percent to 67.1 rubles, and Euro decreased by 1.3% to 75.9 RUB Bloomberg became known that the U.S. Congress is likely to postpone the adoption of new sanctions against Russia before the end of the year, at least. In our opinion, in this case on the Senate sanctions “from hell” will be possible even to forget, since next year the motivation for their approval can be in principle completely lost, and since January the Senate will strengthen the newly-elected members of the Republican party, supporting Donald trump. As for the second part of “sanctions Skripal” trump administration, their introduction also seems to us unlikely in full.
Possible ban on overflight by Russian airlines over the territory of the United States may be much harder to hit the United States itself in the response of Russia if our country will prohibit U.S. aircraft flights over Siberia. Complete ban on foreign trade of the two countries is also hardly possible because of purchases of U.S. strategically essential components and raw materials in Russia. And a ban on the purchase by Americans of new Russian sovereign debt is not critical, and has twice rejected this year by the U.S. Treasury.
At the evening session, we expect stable ruble futures index Mosberg show neutral dynamics.