The Russian market finishes the half in a good mood, and the ruble is in bad

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The Russian stock market on Friday, developed rally and kept momentum for shopping. Index Mosberg rose to two-week peaks and traded by Friday evening, about 2280 points. Against this background the hope in motion “inertia” towards 2300 points do remains, and it may well be that some of the dividend securities to “pull” the market higher. Growth occurs through thin summer market, where the liquidity is lower due to vacations and holidays.
However, it is understood that once a corporate background will cease to supply investors the reasons for immediate reactions, the rally will deflate as quickly as it had formed.
Shares of MTS today are among the leaders of the demand through the support of the news about the repurchase. Information positive for the company’s securities, the more that the market still remembers and assesses the previous experience of “MTS” with a buyback. The approximate weight of the buyback will amount to slightly more than 5% of the securities. Shares of MTS up to 278 RUB, the technical picture shows the demolition of a descending trading channel and forming a new ascending channel with the first target at 300 RUB.
The demand for the ruble is very unstable. On the one hand, Russia completed fiscal period, ended the second quarter and first half, the factor of support from this side is excluded. On the other is the ratio of market assets in developing countries today is calm, the oil breaks up and are willing to buy. It keeps the American currency in the corridor 62,60-63,50 RUB, and beyond the US dollar break not yet. Euro, in turn marking around the mark of 73.0 RUB, although in the current situation could easily go up in the direction of 74.00-74,50 RUB.
For six months the ruble weakened against the dollar by almost 9%, with the main period of decrease was in April. The Euro, the ruble has lost 5.5%. The market optimists are very optimistic expectations on the ruble in the second half of the year, but I’m not one of them. Inflation has already shown how quickly it can accelerate. Since July 1, the country raised tariffs for housing and communal services, and in September “connect” the seasonal factor. A lot depends on oil prices, but given that the authorities have in store for purses rather unpleasant surprises, a strong ruble is unlikely.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari