The ruble will weaken without oil support
In global markets remains the demand for risky assets, which supported the depreciation of the dollar against major currencies including the ruble. USDRUB trading start Monday in close proximity to 64.05, a decrease of 30 cents from the closing levels last week. At current levels the pair dynamics attracted attention, as the USDRUB was down to the important lines pskhologicheskoe “divide”.
Drop below 64 at the end of last month was caused by the purchase of currency for rubles. From the technical analysis we can speak about the existence of a strong support near these levels. In this case, the driver of the decline of the dollar acts as the global demand for risky assets, so the dynamics USDRUB largely tied to the global trend in the foreign exchange market. The development of the USD pullback may lead to greater purchases of the Russian currency and trigger the capture of this important support.
EURRUB also follows the global trend, gaining positions since the end of last week. In the early afternoon the pair ended Monday up 7 cents to 72.77, increasing the growth of the region 72.50. In this case, the support at 72.50 confirmed its strength and contributes to the development of pressure on the Russian currency.
In addition, the alarming dynamics of oil. World stock indices are back in the area of the highs, but Brent stuck near $71 per barrel, which traded the fourth consecutive trading session. The growth of quotations of black gold was an important factor to support the ruble, so the fading growth momentum may play against the Russian currency, increasing traction to lock in profits from the reached levels close to the highs of recent months.
_______________ Alexander Kuptsikevich,