The ruble will take advantage of the weakness of the dollar in the Forex market

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Wednesday, June 6, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” fell by 38 kopecks (-0,62%), up to 61,76 rubles, Euro – by 6 kopecks (-0,09%), to RUB. 72,73 the Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $3.1 billion (-13,88%), the Euro/ruble – 424,2 million Euro (-4,71%).
The Bank of Russia from June 7 has set the official US dollar rate to ruble at the level of 62,0064 RUB that above the previous close by 2.42 kopecks Official Euro to ruble exchange rate was set at around RUB 72,8637 compared to the previous value rate increased by of 35.07 COP.
The ruble closed the trading session on Masuria in plus to foreign currencies, taking advantage of the General weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market. He was even able to survive one failed auction of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies after the statements of ECB officials about the readiness of 14 June to discuss the timetable for the tapering of its bond-buying programme (QE).
The Finance Ministry on Wednesday held the auction on placement of OFZ for a total amount of 30 billion rubles due to the sanctions, investors are reluctant to buy Russian government bonds. The Department has placed on the paper in the amount of 26 billion rubles.
Between the ruble and the oil maintained a positive correlation. And although there is sometimes recorrelate, the oil market continues to have a significant impact on the Russian currency.
Thursday, June 7, a barrel of Brent is $75,60. Price after falling on disappointing US Department of energy recovered by the close of trading on the background of the weakening U.S. currency.
The oil reserves in the USA last week increased by 2,072 million barrels to 436,584 million barrels (consensus was to 2.0 million barrels). Gasoline inventories increased by 4,603 million barrels and amounted to 239,034 million barrels (consensus was +500 thousand barrels), distillate inventories – at 2,165 million barrels to 116,794 million barrels (consensus was +800 thousand barrels). Oil production increased by 31 million, to 10.8 million barrels.
The position of buyers in the oil weakened. Now all attention is focused on the $73,80. Because if this level will not stand today or Friday, before the OPEC meeting+ we can expect a drop in prices to $70,50. For buyers a good sign will be a price increase to $77,90. In this case, the rally in oil may resume with renewed vigor.
In the pair dollar/ruble situation has not changed for about 50 days. The price is in a sideways trend between levels 60,50-65,00 RUB On the present day boundary of the trading range narrowed to 61.00-63,10 RUB the price to Exit the range will determine its direction for the next month. Pair of Euro/ruble will keep the movement around 72,60 RUB.
The price of Brent within the day showed a mixed performance. In the European trading, it increased to $76,22. After the data, the US Department of energy oil prices have dropped to $73,79.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari