The ruble will support the sales of foreign currency by exporters
The ruble will be supported by increased sales of foreign currency by exporters in connection with the end of the quarter. Perhaps the ruble also will support the price of oil (if OPEC+ will agree on a reduction of oil supplies) and geopolitics (if the meeting trump Putin at the end of November will take place in a positive way).
However, the ruble also likely to weigh several factors – the growth of demand for currency in connection with increase of payments on external debt service, the proximity of the peak of the tourist season and long weekends. Also, the ruble may negatively respond to the possible increase of problems in the global economy and persisting geopolitical risks (sanctions). In case of lack of agreement at the December meeting of OPEC+ oil prices may continue to decline – this will put pressure on the ruble.
I expect that in December the ruble to the dollar will be in the range of 64,5-66,5 rubles/$, Euro 74-76 rubles/Euro.
BCS Global Markets