The ruble will support raising the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation
Raising the sovereign rating of Russia to investment level will help to strengthen the ruble
On Friday, February 8, the U.S. dollar calculations “tomorrow” has decreased by 10 kopecks (-0,14%), to RUB of 65.81, while the Euro fell against the ruble by 28 kopecks (-0,37%), to 74.5 RUB.
The Russian national currency during the trading day on Friday showed contradictory dynamics. In the morning session, the ruble declined slightly against the dollar and Euro, but in the evening, getting a good momentum for growth from the Bank of Russia started to go up, and by the end of the day strengthened against both currencies. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday, February 8, decided to leave unchanged its key interest rate at 7.75%. The decision was expected, but the ruble gave confidence comments from the press release of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation that inflation in January did not go beyond the boundaries of the forecast of the regulator.
On London’s ICE on Friday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose 0.6% to $61,99. The growth was driven by data from Mexico about the fall of the proven oil reserves in the country for the last 4 years in 1.5 times. Recall that Mexico is a fairly large producer of black gold, its share in world production is about 3%. At the same time, Friday’s Baker Hughes data on the growth in the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. for the week of 7 units kept the price of a barrel from more significant growth. While the oil is in a rather narrow range from $60 to $63,8 per barrel and will be able to go beyond it only in the presence of strong positive or negative news. The ruble is in this “flat” trend is weakly dependent on oil.
This weekend came the news that global rating Agency Moody’s raised Russia’s sovereign rating from the speculative Ba1 to investment grade Baa3, at the same time, the forecast was lowered from “positive” to “stable” as the rating upgrade has already happened. Today, it is the decision of the rating Agency could have a positive impact on the exchange rate, as the investment rating of the country means a reduction in risks of investments in Russian debt securities, and generally in Russian assets. We believe that the opening of the rouble could strengthen the dollar and the Euro. A pair dollar/ruble today, the projected range for sales in the borders of 65.0 – 66,4 RUB EUR/RUB expected price fluctuations in the interval 74,1 – 75,5 RUB.
Deputy Director of informational-analytical,
The Centre Of Pari