The ruble will remain heavily dependent on dollar

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On the last day of the trading week the ruble traded without a pronounced dynamics, are not receiving important signals from the oil market, where quotations have settled in a tight range, reversing a rally in the consolidation. Dollar retreats slightly in the international arena, but so far it’s not enough to push our currency to further recovery.
By the end of the week the USD bulls have tempered the ardor of suspending purchases. Affected not only the relevance of a pause after a pretty aggressive and long rise, but also indicators of U.S. inflation, which stopped short of the forecast values and partially pushed expectations regarding the pace of fed tightening this year. Against this background, “the Russians” allowed himself to relax and even managed to recover to highs of two weeks ago.
But oil prices have hesitated, that coupled with the geopolitical factor, which, though faded into the background, but continues to restrain the impulses of speculators, prevents further rise of the rate of our currency.
Next week the traditional tax period, the Russian Federation, which, as a rule, the ruble has support or at least restrains the downward pressure in periods of turbulence. Because of the geopolitical situation calmed down a bit, and the oil remains in a high position, it is possible to expect further encroachments of the ruble towards the North. However, it is important to remember that a greater impact on the dynamics of the “Russians” now is not the oil and the dollar. So in any case, the overall sentiment on the U.S. currency in the foreseeable future will be reflected on the behavior of the ruble.
Roman Blinov,
Head of analytical Department,
“International financial center”