The ruble will recover after the negative reaction of the dollar on the NFP report
At the end of last week, the ruble has accelerated the decline against the dollar and fell even after a weak report on the us labor market on Friday when our currency traded within the OTC session. At the end of the day, the pair dollar/ruble, which reached a maximum in the center 66,46 RUB and in time exceeded the 100-day moving average closed just below this area, confirming the break of the level 66 RUB
Friday statistics on the us labor market was a real blow to investors, reflecting employment growth, but only 20 thousand against the forecast of 180 thousand within the initial reaction, the dollar weakened across the market, but the pressure was short-lived, largely due to the positive sides of the report – the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, but hourly earnings rose from 0.1% to 0.4%, beating the forecast of 0.3%.
So, the dollar suffered moderate losses and quickly recovered, trading steadily on Monday. Today a lot of attention ruble traders will pay not only the future trajectory of the us currency, but the dynamics of oil prices, which, after a volatile Friday trying to get back to growth again and stormed a mark 66 on Brent. A break of that level will ease the pressure on the Russian currency, which likely will attempt to send the dollar closer to the level 66 RUB
Academy of management Finance and investment