The ruble will not see the reasons for growth in the next few days
After a morning recovery attempt ruble resumed its March to the South, dropping the dollar to new 1-week highs in the area of 66,68 RUB the oil prices steady after yesterday’s growth, but this factor is not enough to ease the pressure on the Russian currency.
For the most part, this is due to the fact that the situation on world markets continues to play against the assets of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to signals about the threat of recession and the escalation of a trade war. While under the influence these fundamental factors, the ruble can’t use the local drivers, including the peak of tax payments and strengthening of oil prices.
If this setting is added to the increase in demand for the dollar, the pair risks again to aspire to the mark of 67 rubles, a breakthrough which could take place in September, when investors will continue to get rid of higher-yielding assets in favor of the dollar, the yen and gold. Additional stimulus for risk assets is the deepening of the inversion of the yield curve of US bonds, pointing to a growing risk of recession.
From a technical point of view to cool the ardor of the dollar bulls will return quotes under the level of 65.25 RUB, where the 200-day moving average, acting as local support.
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