The ruble will not escape falling against the dollar and the Euro
The Argentine peso is falling off a cliff. The pension Fund of Russia will reduce every fourth employee. Over the Russian currency, dark clouds.
The Argentine peso, depreciating since the beginning of this year more than doubled, continues to decline. On the eve of the peso dipped against the dollar by 15%. This forced the Argentine regulator to raise the interest rate to 60%. “The Argentine” became the latest victim of the turbulence in emerging markets. I hope that this wave that swept the world, will not cover Russia.
Meanwhile, the pension Fund of Russia said that it will cut a quarter of the team in the upcoming 2019. These statements occurred against the backdrop of Vladimir Putin’s words that the FIU “too swung their apartments and people find it annoying”. However, the sale of property pension Fund of Russia will hardly save the pension system. The value of all objects owned by the RPF is estimated at 120 billion rubles.
We believe that this figure is significantly understated. However, you do need to accept that even if we sell all of the building Fund, it will not save you from raising the retirement age. And even if you dismiss all employees, and the Fund move online, what to do is now impossible, then again to escape from the pension reform will not work.. It is needed in order that the pyramid of the pension system did not collapse in a difficult situation with the state budget.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange held at the level of 68 rubles 10 kopecks, the Euro traded at 79 rubles 55 kopecks. The MICEX index dropped to 2320 points, and quotes of Brent crude oil traded just below $ 78 per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap keeps close to 7000 dollars.
Over the domestic currency, more and more clouds are gathering. That collapsed the Mexican peso, the sanctions expand, the traders expect the Central Bank rate increases in September. All this, of course, is the reason for the negative in quotations of the Russian currency and should not exclude the chance of the growth of the dollar above 70 rubles. All this despite the fact that all reputable economists say is fundamentally grounded ruble exchange rate somewhere in the range of 55 to 60 rubles per dollar.
That is, even now, the dollar is overvalued by at least 8 rubles. So all that we see now in the foreign exchange market is primarily emotions and it is unlikely that we will see breakthroughs above 71-72 rubles per dollar. And for making any trading decisions we need to wait for correction. We are waiting for the correction to 65-66 per dollar and recommend it is there to make a decision about buying in the medium term, not before.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,