The ruble will not be able to continue the growth against the dollar without the support of
Monday, may 6, the dollar and the Euro is quite confidently moved down the ruble. By the close of trading on Monday, the U.S. dollar calculations “tomorrow” rose to 15 kopecks (+0,23%), to RUB 65,23, and the Euro managed to strengthen against the ruble by 13 kopecks (+0,17%), to RUB 73,07 Note that in the period of holidays and short working week the dollar and the Euro could return to the levels of the end of March: the dollar – above 65 rubles, Euro above 73 rubles.
Global markets since early may, concerned about the prospects of the failure of protracted negotiations between China and the United States and, accordingly, possibility unwinding of a new round of trade war. Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, and the representatives of China, according to media reports, in no hurry to start in such conditions a new round of negotiations. Plane crash at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, which occurred on 5 may and claimed the lives of 41 people, also added to the negative background ruble. Significant drivers for the strengthening of the Russian currency yet.
The price of Brent crude oil on Monday have grown on 0,89%, to $71,2 per barrel. The market apparently expects a reduction in the supply of oil after the abolition of the exception for the eight countries of the American embargo against Iran since 2 may. However, the news about the possible failure of negotiations between China and the US also cause the market to worry. This morning the price of Brent crude was back to the drop and decreases by 0.4%.
Today at the opening of trading may see a new movement of the ruble down. We again increased the forecasts: on the pair dollar/ruble to 65-66 RUB and EUR/RUB to 72.6-73.8 per RUB.
Deputy Director of information-analytical center,