The ruble will keep the current rate because of the negative and the fall of oil by 2%

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On Friday, June 22, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” has decreased by 82 kopecks (of -1.29%), to 62.89 Euro – 52 kopecks (-0,85%), 73,30 to RUB Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $3.5 billion (-5,40%), and Euro/ruble – 458,6 million euros (+of 22.48%).
The Bank of Russia from June 23 to set the official US dollar rate to ruble at the level of 63,2396 RUB below the previous close at 54,77 COP. the Official Euro to rouble was fixed at RUB 73,7247 compared to the previous value rate increased by 3.76 kopecks.
On the last day of the week trading on ruble pairs closed lower. The ruble since the start of trading showed growth on the background of the morning increase in oil prices. By the close of the day, the dollar fell to 62,81 Euro – 73,23 to RUB.
The key event last week was the OPEC meeting+. At a meeting of the cartel was taken the decision to increase oil production by 1 million barrels a day. The market was ready to such decision, so before the weekend was followed by the closing of speculative short positions, which has led to higher prices on futures of Brent oil with delivery in August 2018 by 3.42% to $75,55 per barrel.
Additional support for the Russian currency had a tax period and the increase in the index of government bonds of Russia (RGBI). At the end of the day the index rose by 0.11% to 140,16.
Monday, June 25, the Russian currency can lose all of Friday’s profits. This is true for several reasons. The first of these is the fall in oil prices by 2%, to $74,08 per barrel, the second – on June 25, the peak of tax payments, which is already considered by the market and everyone understands what will happen next, the third reason – the RGBI index is in an upward corrective phase, which may suddenly fail.
Considering all the above factors in the ruble today has little chance of strengthening foreign currencies. I would venture to suggest that on Monday the dollar will recover to 63,60 Euro – 74 RUB.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari