The ruble will go above $ 70 because of “business Skrypalia”
The US and Britain, against the notorious “case Skrypalia” that could spark a mass sell-off of Russian assets and send the ruble above the psychological level of 70.00 per dollar, and further to historic lows.
Yesterday, September 6, at the closing session, the US dollar amounted to 69,45 RUB/$, which is by 1.2 ruble above the previous auction closing. The dollar reached the level of 69,64 rubles/$1 for the first time since March 2016. The Euro was worth 80,67 rubles/EUR1, up 1.28 ruble. Earlier in the course of trading the Euro tested the level to 80.85 RUB./EUR1 for the first time since March 1, 2016.
In addition to political factors, the pressure on the Russian market can have a negative external background from-for falling of quotations of oil contracts and falling shares of oil and gas companies.
An important factor of pressure on the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation remains the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal reserve, increased foreign trade restrictions, unprecedented inflationary pressures in emerging markets and steady return to higher interest rates. Finally, the accelerated outflow of capital from Russia in 2018 ($41 billion instead of the previously expected $18 billion according to the Ministry of economic development) and the exit of non-residents of the Russian government securities pushed the yield on the OFZ to the highest value over the last year.
Banks were among the first to demonstrated a willingness to tighter monetary policy of the Central Bank, opening a new season of raising interest rates on Bank deposits, ahead of the corresponding decision by the regulator. In the end, the average maximum rate of deposits in the ten largest banks of the Russian Federation on deposits of natural persons during the last ten days of August rose to 6,559% per annum – the maximum six-month values.
All of these factors together can force the Central Bank to take pre-emptive action and to raise the key rate, bringing it in line with the requirements of the present.