The ruble will fall without stopping for a second week
The ruble has turned to the downside, despite the positive external background. The USD / RUB pair rose to 66.79, up 28 cents from the levels of the end of the week and EURRUB reached 74.15 (+38 cents). Note that since the beginning of the year USDRUB jumped to 67 for a few minutes in February and may.
At the same time, the world markets are showing positive dynamics. Asian and European grounds added about 1% after Chinese officials promised new economic incentives, and key Central Bank aimed at further rate cuts. All together, this, in theory, should revive fading economic growth.
Oil though lost the positive momentum is still trading in positive territory, reflecting hopes for increased demand from investors .
However, the ruble stands apart from this movement, decreasing at lower volumes. With one hand, slipping against the market suggests that the “flywheel weakening” of the ruble is unwound, and the Russian currency at the moment, it is difficult to find supporters. On the other hand, the low volumes suggest that the slide of the ruble and the Russian market as a whole can be no more than a summer lull. At a time when trading activity in the markets is lowered, the trends tend to develop on the thumb. Apparently, investors simply do not hurry with the shopping, letting the ruble to fall safely.
It is worth noting that the decline in trading volumes as trends develop often acts as a signal attenuation of the pulse. This may relate to the Russian currency. Against the dollar, the ruble dropped to levels of the beginning of the year, which also aspires oil and Asian markets. Thus, the Russian currency had lost my halo bulletproofing which has surrounded her since January and allowed to grow steadily, despite the failures of oil.
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